000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240334
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN FEB 24 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...        

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 06N77W TO 05N82W TO 05N92W. THE 
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N92W TO 
07N125W THEN RESUMES FROM 07N129W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS N OF THE ITCZ TO 13N BETWEEN 130W AND 133W. 
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM N OF A 
LINE FROM 12N140W TO 18N120W.

...DISCUSSION...

1035 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS POSITIONED NW OF THE DISCUSSION 
WATERS NEAR 38N137W. A RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM THE HIGH THROUGH 
32N133W TO 24N120W TO 15N105W. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IS SW OF 
THE RIDGE AND N OF THE ITCZ RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E 
TRADES N OF 15N W OF 130W...AND ALSO FROM 09N TO 15N W OF 120W. 
SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELL ARE COINCIDENT WITH 
THESE WINDS. A SURROUNDING AREA OF 8 TO 10 FT PRIMARILY NW SWELL 
COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE REMAINDER OF THE NW HALF OF THE 
WATERS. THE HIGH AND RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY WHILE DRIFTING E 
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...ALLOWING FOR THE AREA OF TRADES 
TO SHRINK FROM 09N TO 17N W OF 128W BY MON AFTERNOON. 

A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WAS STRETCHED OUT FROM SOUTHERN 
CALIFORNIA TO ALONG 32N TO THE W HAS DISSIPATED DURING THE PAST 
FEW HOURS. EVEN SO...THERE IS STILL A SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS 
MOVING S TOWARD 32N...ALONG WITH SEAS UP TO 16 FT GENERATED BY 
GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 32N. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND NW SWELL OF 
10 TO 15 FT WILL REACH TO 25N BETWEEN 117W AND 130W BY SUN 
MORNING...THEN WILL DIMINISH BY SUN AFTERNOON WITH THE LINGERING 
NW SWELL GRADUALLY DECAYING TO 8 TO 10 FT BY MON EVENING.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ EXTENDING FROM 
10N124W TO 07N185W. ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT 
NEAR THE NORTHERN TIP OF THE TROUGH WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL 
WESTERLY WINDS PRESENT. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY 
STATIONARY OR DRIFT WESTWARD...EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING DURING THE 
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

HIGH PRES WILL DEVELOP OVER THE U.S. GREAT BASIN REGION BY EARLY 
SUN. THIS HIGH COMBINED WITH ELONGATED TROUGHING ALONG THE 
WESTERN COAST OF MEXICO/EAST GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST WILL 
RESULT IN A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE NW MEXICO REGION... 
SUPPORTING FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS. THESE WINDS 
WILL COMMENCE IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA SUN MORNING... 
SPREADING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF BY MON MORNING...THEN 
DIMINISHING ON TUE. EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD TO UP 10 FT AT THE TAIL 
END OF THE FETCH GENERATION REGION. GUIDANCE BASED ON A LOCAL 
RESEARCH STUDY KEEPS THE CHANCE FOR GALE FORCE WINDS NEAR 0 
THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
LEWITSKY