000
AXPZ20 KNHC 231544
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT FEB 23 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...        
MONSOON TROUGH ALONG 05N77W TO 08N86W TO 06N92W. ITCZ FROM 
06N92W TO 02N100W TO 05N118W TO 06N127W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 110W AND 117W... 
AND FROM 06N TO 13N BETWEEN 130W AND 140W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION N OF 24N E OF 130W TO INCLUDE THE BAJA PENINSULA. 
A WLY 70-110 KT JETSTREAM IS S OF THIS TROUGH FROM 17N-24N.  
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THIS JETSTREAM. IN THE DEEP 
TROPICS...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS FROM 05N TO 16N BETWEEN 130W 
AND 140W ENHANCING CONVECTION. FURTHER E...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
IS BETWEEN 100W AND 120W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR 
AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS ACROSS THE AREA E OF 100W TO 
INCLUDE CENTRAL AMERICA.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS N OF THE ITCZ FROM 11N138W TO 07N140W 
PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION. ELSEWHERE...SURFACE 
HIGH PRES RIDGE IS N OF 07N W OF 110W. THE SURFACE PRES GRADIENT 
IS SUPPORTING 20-25 KT NE TO E WINDS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE 
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

ELY WINDS 20-25 KT WITH SEAS TO 6 FT THROUGH THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO WILL PULSE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH STRONGEST WINDS 
IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS SW TEXAS COMBINED WITH 
THE RIDGE TO THE W WILL RESULT IN STRONG NLY ACROSS THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA SUN. 

$$
FORMOSA