000 AXPZ20 KNHC 221605 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC FRI FEB 22 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N77W 07N86W TO 02N93W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ AXIS TO 04N101W TO 04N112W TO 07N121W TO 07N130W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATE STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 117W-120W...AND ALSO WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 109W-112W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 125W-132W. ...DISCUSSION... ALOFT... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE INTERMOUTAIN REGION OF THE U.S. STRETCHES SSW ACROSS NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA...SW TO NEAR 25N123W WHERE UPPER LEVEL MODEL AND SATELLITE WIND DATA INDICATE THAT IT WEAKENS TO SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING WWD TO 25N133W TO W OF THE AREA AT 226N140W. A WEAKENING AND ELONGATED CYCLOCNIC UPPER CIRCULATION MOVING WWD IS W OF THE AREA AT 26N146W. HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS WELL NW OF THE AREA WITH A CREST THAT SPILLS SEWD ACROSS THE FAR PACIFIC NW REGION. A VERY ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM BRANCH STRETCHES FROM THE DEEP CENTRAL TROPICAL PACIFIC REGION ENE TO JUST S OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT 26N146W...AND CONTINUES EWD THROUGH 24N140W TO 23N130W...AND NE TO ACROSS SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND FURTHER NE TO ACROSS NE MEXICO AND ERN TEXAS. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE A WIND MAXIMUM IN THE RANGE OF 90-105 KT IN THE JET CORE REGION FOUND FROM 17N TO 23N W OF 122W. THIS JET STREAM IS HELPING TO ADVECT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE (LESS THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS)IN THE FORM OF MOSTLY BROKEN TO SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS EWD INTO THE AREA FROM 16N TO 24N W OF 125W. SIMILAR CLOUDS ARE BEING CHANNELED NEWD WITHIN 400 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 23N106W TO 17N120W TO 16N127W. OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA A NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 20N120W SE TO 10N157W. CONFLUENCE FLOW INTO THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS RESULTING IN MODERATE SUBSIDENCE WITH ASSOCIATED DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE NE PORTION N OF ABOUT 25N E OF 123W. OUTSIDE THE TROPICAL BELT REGION OF THE AREA...ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE STABLE AS NORMAL FOR THIS TIME WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMLUS TYPE CLOUDS MOVING SSW N OF 15N. SURFACE... A STRONG 1036 MB HIGH CENTER REMAINS ANCHORED NW OF THE AREA AT 36N147W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SEWD THROUGH 32N139W TO 27N125W TO NEAR 21N114W. THE LATEST PRES ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRES CONTINUING TO COVER THE AREA N OF 16N W OF 118W. THE PRES GRADIENT FOUND IN THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT WINDS FROM 09N-27N W OF 132W WHERE SEA STATE IS IN THE RANGE OF 9-12 FT. THE 1036 MB HIGH IS FORECAST TO ONLY MOVE SLOWLY E OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS WHILE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS TO DIMINISH FROM THE N...BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 9-12 FT RANGE. BY 48 HRS...A TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT OVER E PACIFIC WATERS OFF CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO FUNNEL IN N WINDS OF 20-25 KT INTO THE FAR NRN WATERS N OF ABOUT 29N AND BETWEEN 120W-128W WITH EXPECTED SEAS OF 9-12 FT. GAP WINDS... NE TO E WINDS OF 20-25 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...AND WITHIN THE AREA FROM 10N-12N W FROM THE GULF TO 89W ARE FORECAST TO PULSE THROUGH SAT MORNING...THEN DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY EARLY SAT AFTERNOON. $$ AGUIRRE