000
AXPZ20 KNHC 212131
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU FEB 21 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 04N77W TO 03N83W. THE INTERTROPICAL 
CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N83W TO 05N94W TO 03N106W 
TO 07N126W THEN RESUMES FROM 07N128W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 83W 
AND 87W...AND ALSO FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 115W AND 118W.

...DISCUSSION...

NEARLY STATIONARY 1037 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS POSITIONED NW OF 
THE DISCUSSION WATERS NEAR 37N148W. A RIDGE EXTENDS TO THE SE 
FROM THE HIGH THROUGH 32N136W WITH A SE TERMINUS NEAR 12N100W. A 
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ FROM 12N125W TO 
06N127W. THE PRES GRADIENT SW OF THE RIDGE AND N OF THE ITCZ AND 
TROUGH IS TIGHT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS 
FROM 08N TO 26N W OF A LINE FROM 26N130W TO 13N118W TO 08N130W. 
SEAS OF 9 TO 12 FT IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELL ARE COINCIDENT WITH 
THESE WINDS. THE AREAL COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF THE WINDS AND 
SEAS WILL NOT VARY MUCH THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

REMNANT LARGE NW SWELL UP TO 14 FT IS N OF 25N W OF THE BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...GENERATED BY A FORMER FRONTAL SYSTEM. 
THIS SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DECAY TO 8-9 FT BY FRI AFTERNOON. 

HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE U.S. FOUR CORNERS REGION LATE FRI 
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGHING SETS UP 
ALONG THE EASTERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA/WESTERN MEXICAN COAST. THIS 
WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA LATE FRI NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SAT AFTERNOON.

GAP WINDS...
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE IN THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING DURING THE 
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH ENHANCEMENT BY NOCTURNAL 
DRAINAGE FLOW. ASSOCIATED SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL PEAK TO 
AROUND 8 FT TONIGHT AND FRI. THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THESE WINDS 
WILL STRETCH WESTWARD TO NEAR 90W...DIMINISHING SAT AFTERNOON AS 
THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE REGION SLACKENS.

$$
LEWITSKY