000
AXPZ20 KNHC 211623 AAA
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU FEB 21 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS NOT IDENTIFIBALE. THE INTERTROPICAL 
CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N85W TO 04N94W TO 06N111W 
TO 05N121W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 115W-118W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF 07N132W AND 
08N136W.

...DISCUSSION...

A RATHER LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN 
REGION OF THE U.S. EXTENDS SW TO NEAR 32N119W. THE ASSOCIATED 
SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL INLAND NRN MEXICO. IN ITS 
WAKE...STRONG HIGH PRES RIDGING STRETCHES SEWD INTO THE AREA 
FROM A STATIONARY 1036 MB HIGH CENTER NW OF THE AREA AT 37N150W 
THROUGH 32N138W TO 26N125W AND TO NEAR 2N114W. HIGH PRES COVERS 
THE AREA GENERALLY N OF 15N AND W OF 114W. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES IN THE SUBTROPICAL REGION OF 
THE AREA CONTINUES TO RESULT IN NE TRADES OF 20-25 KT FROM 10N 
TO 26N W OF 130W WHERE SEAS ARE 9-12 FT IN MIXED NE AND NW 
SWELL. WITH THE PARENT HIGH OF 1036 MB REMAINING STATIONARY 
THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HRS...THESE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE 
LITTLE THROUGH THAT TIME. THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE NE PORTION 
OF THE AREA REMAINS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT NW 20 KT WINDS 
MAINLY N OF ABOUT 26N AND E OF 125W...WHERE LARGE SWELLS IN NW 
SWELLS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 12-16 FT. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST 
REMAINS ON TRACKS FOR THESE SWELLS TO SLOWLY DECAY TO 9-12 FT BY 
EARLY THIS EVENING...AND TO 8-9 FT BY FRI EVENING.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED DEEP LAYER RIDGING 
WELL W OF THE AREA...AND A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW AT 
27N147W. A SOMEWHAT NEAGATIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS 
NOTED FROM 23N132W TO 17N129W SE TO NEAR 09N124W. BROAD 
MID/UPPER RIDGING IS SW OF THIS TROUGH. THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN
BETWEEN BOTH THESE FEATURES IS TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT MID/UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE EWD INTO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WRN PORTIONS OF 
THE AREA. POSSIBLE PATCHES OF RAIN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
OVER THE WRN PORTION FROM 16N TO 29N W OF 129W. AHEAD OF THE 
MID/UPPER TROUGH BROKEN TO OVERCAST MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE 
STREAMING NEWD TO ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO.
 
GAP WINDS...
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE IN THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING DURING THE 
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH ENHANCEMENT BY NOCTURNAL 
DRAINAGE FLOW. ASSOCIATED SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL PEAK TO 
AROUND 9 FT TODAY...THEN TO 8 FT OR JUST BELOW 8 FT THU AND FRI. 
THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THESE WINDS WILL STRETCH W INTO THE ERN 
PACIFIC TO NEAR 90W.

$$
AGUIRRE