000
AXPZ20 KNHC 192145
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE FEB 19 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

NO MONSOON TROUGH IS PRESENT. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE 
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N86W TO 04N95W TO 05N120W TO 07N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180-240 NM N OF THE ITCZ 
BETWEEN 126W AND 134W.

...DISCUSSION...

1035 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS NW OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS NEAR 
36N150W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE THROUGH 31N140W TO 20N110W. A 
TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IS SW OF THE RIDGE AXIS SUPPORTING FRESH TO 
STRONG WINDS FROM ROUGHLY 08N TO 25N W OF 128W ALONG WITH 8-11 
FT SEAS IN MIXED NE WIND WAVES AND LONG PERIOD NW SWELL. THE 
AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL NOT 
CHANGE MUCH IN COVERAGE OR STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS 
AS THE RIDGE QUICKLY REBUILDS IN ACROSS THE NW WATERS IN THE 
WAKE OF A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT.

THAT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP S OF 30N LATE TONIGHT WITH 
FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS BEHIND IT S OF 30N AND NW SWELL 
UP TO 16 FT BY WED AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY LOSE ITS 
DEFINITION OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS BY WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING 
AS IT PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD. THE LARGE NW SWELL WILL GRADUALLY 
SUBSIDE TO 11-14 FT OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION BY THU AFTERNOON. 
THIS FRONT WILL ALSO AID FRESH TO STRONG SW-W WINDS IN THE FAR 
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA BEGINNING THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY 
WED NIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THEREAFTER AS THE GRADIENT 
WEAKENS AND THE FRONT DISSIPATES.

GAP WINDS...
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE IN THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING DURING THE 
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH ENHANCEMENT BY NOCTURNAL 
DRAINAGE FLOW. ASSOCIATED SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL PEAK 
AROUND 9 FT. A LONG PLUME OF MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS 
ALONG WITH SEAS OF UP TO 9 FT IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELL WILL 
PERSIST DOWNWIND OF PAPAGAYO FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN 95W AND 
115W THROUGH EARLY WED.

HIGH PRES OVER EASTERN MEXICO AND LOWERING PRES S OF THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH OF A 
PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC TO SUPPORT A 
BRIEF PULSE OF 20 TO 25 KT GAP WINDS THIS EVENING THROUGH WED 
MORNING.

$$
LEWITSKY