000
AXPZ20 KNHC 191522
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE FEB 19 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
ITCZ FROM 6N86W 4N105W 7N125W TO 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 200 NM N OF AXIS FROM 
125W-133W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA 
WITH AXIS FROM 32N123W TO 29N140W. DOWNSTREAM A BROAD FLAT UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE IS N OF 20N E OF 115W. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS 
MOSTLY ZONAL THROUGH THIS AREA WITH A 95-105 KT JETSTREAM ACROSS 
THE AREA FROM 23N135W TO NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA WHERE WINDS 
INCREASE TO 120-130 KT. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS WITHIN 540 NM S 
OF THE JET. TRANSVERSE BANDING IS NOTED IN THE HIGH CLOUDS 
INDICATING POSSIBLE HIGH LEVEL TURBULENCE. OTHERWISE MODERATE TO 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AN UPPER 
LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE S OF 20N E OF 115W. IN THE DEEP 
TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N110W TO THE 
EQUATOR AT 105W. AN UPPER LEVEL EXTENDS FROM 15N107W TO 3N122W.
UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE TROUGH TO THE NW IS 
ENHANCING CONVECTION NEAR THE ITCZ BETWEEN 125W AND 133W.

ELY WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO IN TO 20-25 KT RANGE WITH 
SEAS 8-10 FT...CONDITIONS ARE EXPETED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THU.

SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 115W. THE PRES 
GRADIENT ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTING 
ELY WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE FROM 9N-22N W OF 130W. 

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BRUSH THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE AREA 
WED EXTENDING FROM 30N115W TO 28N121W. NW WIND WILL INCREASE TO 
20-25 KT WITH SEAS 9 TO 14 SEAS IN NW SWELL W OF THE FRONT TO 
130W.

$$
DGS