000
AXPZ20 KNHC 181516
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON FEB 18 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
ITCZ FROM 5N90W 2N105W TO 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 200 NM N OF AXIS FROM 134W-138W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA WITH AXIS FROM 32N133W TO 29N140W. DOWNSTREAM A BROAD FLAT 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS N OF 20N E OF 125W. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS 
MOSTLY ZONAL THROUGH THIS AREA WITH A 90-100 KT JETSTREAM ACROSS 
THE AREA FROM 20N140W TO NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. HIGH LEVEL 
MOISTURE IS WITHIN 540 NM S OF THE JET EXCEPT SOME DEEP LEVEL 
MOISTURE AS DESCRIBED IN THE ITCZ SECTION. OTHERWISE MODERATE TO 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AN UPPER 
LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE S OF 21N E OF 120W. IN THE DEEP 
TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 15N103W TO THE 
EQUATOR AT 106W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS 
CENTERED NEAR 8N125W

NLY WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAVE DECREASED TO 
BELOW GALE FORCE BUT ARE STILL 20-25 KT...AND ARE FORECAST TO BE 
LESS THAN 20 KT LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

ELY WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO HAVE ALSO DECREASED TO 
BELOW GALE FORCE...HOWEVER THE WINDS REMAIN STRONG IN TO 20-30 
KT RANGE WITH SEAS 8-12 FT. THE WINDS ARE FORECAST DECREASE 
SLIGHTLY MORE TUE AND WED TO 20-25 KT. 

SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 115W. THE PRES 
GRADIENT ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IS 
SUPPORTING  ELY WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE FROM 10N-23N W OF 
135W. 

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BRUSH THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE AREA 
WED EXTENDING FROM 30N115W TO 28N118W. NW WIND WILL INCREASE TO 
20-25 KT W OF THE FRONT TO 125W.

$$
DGS