000 AXPZ20 KNHC 100914 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SUN FEB 10 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0645 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 04N91W TO 04N108W TO 07N112W. THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 07N112W TO 08N115W TO 07N121W TO 07N128W TO 05N132W TO 04N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION WAS NOTED. ...DISCUSSION... A 120-140 KT WESTERLY UPPER JET IN PLACE FROM 18N140W TO NW MEXICO WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A STRONG SHORTWAVE SYSTEM NEAR 33N137W LIES IN THE WESTERN SIDE OF A MEAN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS ENERGY WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND BECOME ELONGATED JUST N OF THE JET AXIS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THERE WILL BE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH NW OF THE AREA ALONG 145W WILL CUT OFF FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM AND SEND AN UPPER LOW S OF 32N JUST W OF THE FORECAST AREA. NW SWELL FROM THIS SYSTEM...WITH PERIODS IN THE 19-21 SECOND RANGE...HAS MOVED THROUGH NW WATERS AND WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TODAY AND MON AND REACH MANZANILLO MEXICO BY TUE MORNING. SEAS AS HIGH AS 12 FT ARE EXPECTED IN NW WATERS. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRUSH THE FAR NW CORNER OVERNIGHT SUN NIGHT AND DISSIPATE AS IT SLOWLY SHIFTS WESTWARD THROUGH TUE. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN WATERS N OF THE ITCZ THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE MONSOON TROUGH TO THE S AND RIDGING OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN HAS INCREASED THE NE TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO 25 KT THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TUE...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WHEN DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE LAND IS AT A MAXIMUM. $$ SCHAUER