000
AXPZ20 KNHC 091555
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI FEB 08 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1530 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 02N79W TO 04N85W TO 
04N95W TO 10N112W TO 08N120W. THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 
07N120W TO 04N130W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS 
NOTED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 85W AND 
90W. 

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD OVER THE FAR NE 
PACIFIC WILL PUSH INTO THE BASE OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH 
EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... 
PROVIDING REINFORCEMENT TO A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH 
NORTHERN BAJA AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA LAST NIGHT. A 
1032 MB SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 38N133W IS BUILDING BEHIND 
THE FRONT ALTIMETER DATA AND A 08 UTC OSCAT PASS INDICATED FRESH 
NE WINDS N OF 26N E OF 125W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BAJA WITH 
SEAS OF TO 8 TO 11 FT...BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE AND THE FRONT 
EXITING TO THE EAST. 

THE OSCAT PASS ALSO INDICATED A BROAD AREA OF MOSTLY MODERATE TO 
FRESH TRADE WINDS S OF THE RIDGE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA 
W OF 110W. THE ALTIMETER DATA INDICATED A LARGE AREA OF SEAS OF 
UP TO 9 FT...IN NW SWELL. WAVE MODEL DATA INDICATES A NEW SWELL 
TRAIN FROM THE NW STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...MAINTAINING 
SEAS 8 TO 11 FT AND PERIODS OF 12 TO 18 SECONDS. THIS SWELL WILL 
SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA W OF 110W THROUGH MIDWEEK. 

A 06 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED POSSIBLE FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY 
WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IN LINE WITH GFS 
INITIALIZATION. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE 
TODAY. 

FARTHER SOUTH...SCATTEROMETER DATA ALSO HINTED OF FRESH TO 
STRONG PULSES THROUGH THE PAPAGAYO. PERSISTENT RIDGING N OF THE 
ARA WILL MAINTAIN THESE PULSES...MOSTLY IN THE LATE NIGHT OR 
EARLY MORNING THROUGH THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS.

$$
CHRISTENSEN