000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090937
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI FEB 08 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0630 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 03N78W TO 05N85W TO 
04N94W TO 09N112W TO 07N120W. THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 
07N120W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED ON 
THE E EDGE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COASTS OF 
COLOMBIA AND ECUADOR S OF 04N. 

...DISCUSSION...
A ZONAL UPPER JET IN PLACE FROM 20N140W TO NW MEXICO WILL REMAIN 
STATIONARY AS IT STRENGTHENS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AN UPPER 
TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TODAY AS NEW 
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS 
TROUGH FLATTENS ITS SOUTHERN EXTENT OVER THE NE PORTION OF THE 
FORECAST AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH 
THIS TROUGH ALOFT CURRENTLY LIES FROM NEAR NOGALES MEXICO ACROSS 
THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO NEAR 29N114W. THIS FRONT HAS 
BROUGHT FRESH TO STRONG W-SW WINDS TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA. THE STRONG PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS FRONT AND THE 
1034 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH NEAR 38N136W IS FORCING FRESH TO STRONG 
N-NW WINDS BETWEEN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE COAST AND 126W AS 
SEEN BY THE 0448 UTC ASCAT PASS. WINDS ON BOTH SIDES OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA NORTE ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON AS THE 
FRONT MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.

TRADE WINDS OVER W WATERS HAVE DIMINISHED TO A FRESH BREEZE 
ACCORDING TO THE 0626 UTC ASCAT PASS. THE AFOREMENTIONED 
SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT IS NUDGED 
NORTHEASTWARD BY A WEAK COLD FRONT TO ITS W. STRONG TRADES ARE 
NOT FORECAST TO RETURN ANYTIME WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE 
WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH NW WATERS ON MON...BUT NW SWELL WITH 20 
SECOND PERIODS FROM THE SYSTEM IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO 
NW WATERS. SEAS WILL REACH AS HIGH AS 12 FT HERE BY MON MORNING. 

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED NEAR THE GALAPAGOS 
ISLANDS IN THE AREA S OF 03N BETWEEN 88W AND 92W. THIS AREA 
COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM OF PRECIPITABLE WATER AS WELL AS WITH 
THE REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET THAT EXTENDS FROM JUST W 
OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS THROUGH EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA INTO 
THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE AXIS OF THE STRONGEST WINDS IS EXPECTED TO 
GRADUALLY SHIFT W AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND THE POOL 
OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY ERODE...DIMINISHING THE 
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION HERE. 

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A FRESH TO STRONG N BREEZE IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC WAS CAPTURED BY THE 0304 UTC ASCAT PASS. THESE WINDS 
WILL DIMINISH BY THIS AFTERNOON AS FLOW IN THE SW GULF TURNS 
SOUTHEASTERLY...CUTTING OFF THE FLOW THROUGH CHIVELA PASS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE 
MONSOON TROUGH TO THE S AND RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS 
INCREASED THE NE TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA TO A 
FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS WILL 
CONTINUE TO PULSE TO 25 KT THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY MON...WITH THE 
STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WHEN 
DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE LAND IS AT A MAXIMUM.

$$
SCHAUER