000
AXPZ20 KNHC 081524
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI FEB 08 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 04N77W TO 04N81W TO 03N91W TO 
09N110W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH 
EXTENDS TO 06N125W TO BEYOND 06N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED. 

...DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE 1033 MB IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 39N138W. 
THE DISTANCE AND STRENGTH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER COMPARED 
TO THE LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING 
A PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS. THE 
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT FURTHER EAST OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN IT AND A TROUGH OVER MEXICO AND INCREASE WINDS OVER THE 
FAR NE PART OF THE AREA...AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA. AS THE HIGH FURTHER WEAKENS...THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT WILL LOOSEN...AND WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN DIMINISH BELOW 
ADVISORY CRITERIA SAT.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A COLD FRONT IN THE NW GULF OF MEXICO WILL 
SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY...REACHING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS 
EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FRESH TO STRONG N BREEZE MOVING 
THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC OVERNIGHT. 
WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO BY SAT 
AFTERNOON...CUTTING OFF THE FLOW THROUGH CHIVELA PASS AND 
DIMINISHING WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BETWEEN 
THE MONSOON TROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN 
GULF OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL INCREASE THE NE TRADE WIND 
FLOW THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE IN THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO BEGINNING EARLY SAT MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL 
CONTINUE TO PULSE TO 25 KT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE 
STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WHEN 
DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE LAND IS AT A MAXIMUM.

$$
AL