000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080341
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI FEB 08 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH 08N82W TO 06N92W TO 08N102W THEN ITCZ TO 09N105W 
TO 06N118W TO  BEYOND 06N140W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS FROM 114W TO 117W.

...DISCUSSION...
WEAK BUT SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA 
12N112W TO 00N110W MOVE E WITH A SMALL AMOUNT OF TROPICAL 
MOISTURE ADVECTED NE HEADED FOR SOUTHERN MEXICO.  TWO BROAD 
ANTICYCLONES..ON EACH SIDE OF TROUGH...MAINTAIN VERY DRY AND 
STABLE CONDITIONS OVER REMAINDER OF BASIN.  ONLY ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 90 NM S OF ITCZ AXIS FROM 114W 
TO 117W.  MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES TROUGH MOVES OUT OF BASIN 
SAT...ALLOWING LONGWAVE TROUGH WELL N OF AREA TO FLATTEN CREST 
OF RIDGE LEAVING FLAT ZONAL CONDITIONS ALOFT N OF 20N THROUGH 
REMAINDER OF FORECAST PERIOD.

...AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
HEALTHY HIGH PRES CENTER 1033 MB AT 37N143W WITH ASSOCIATED 
RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO 17N110W PROMPTS MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES 
WITH SEAS 10 TO 112 FT FROM 15N TO 25N W OF 132W TONIGHT.  HIGH 
PRES CENTER DRIFTS E FRI DIMINISHING WINDS OVER W SIDE OF BASIN 
BUT INCREASING THEM ALONG SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST FRI FRI AND 
FRI NIGHT WITH SWELLS BUILDING TO 12-13 FT N OF 26N E OF 130W. 

STRONG CARIBBEAN TRADES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD SEEP THROUGH 
GAPS IN NICARAGUA MOUNTAINS AND PROMPT INCREASING FRESH BREEZE 
BUT SEAS BELOW 8 FT OVER GULF OF PAPAGAYO IN E PAC.  WINDS AND 
SEAS CONTINUE TO INCREASE BEYOND FORECAST PERIOD.   
 
$$
WALLY BARNES