000
AXPZ20 KNHC 071512
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU FEB 07 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N83W TO 07N100W WHERE LOW 
LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS TO BEYOND 
05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 107W AND 114W.

...DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE...1032 MB...IS CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 
38N144W WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 21N112W. THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA REMAINS WEAK DUE TO THE STRENGTH 
AND DISTANCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER FROM LOWER PRESSURE IN 
THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ. AS A RESULT BENIGN CONDITIONS ARE SEEN 
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS 
PREVAILING. A SET OF NW SWELLS PREVAILS OVER THE NW PART OF THE 
FORECAST AREA...WITH SEAS 8-10 FT FOUND THIS MORNING NW OF A 
LINE 30N116W TO 16N130W.

THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE 
OF DAYS...HOWEVER THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK...AND 
WINDS AREA NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE WINDS TO ADVISORY CRITERIA. 
THE NW SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD S AND E OVER THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE SLOWLY SUBSIDING. A NEW SET OF NW SWELLS 
WILL ENTER INTO NE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH COMBINED SEAS 
8-12 FT N OF 24N BETWEEN 114W AND 132W BY SAT MORNING.

$$
AL