000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070344
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU FEB 07 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 05N90W TO 06N95W THEN ITCZ 
AXIS TO 08N103W TO 07N109W AND FROM 06N115W TO 07N124W TO BEYOND 
07N140W.  NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUN FROM 32N116W TO 12N118W TO 00N124W. 
DRY AIR MASS ALOFT BRINGS MINOR AMOUNTS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE 
INTO CENTRAL MEXICO RIDING ON WEAK 50 KT JET WITHIN 240 NM E OF 
TROUGH AXIS.  ELSEWHERE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY DRY AND STABLE.  
NOT EVEN THE ITCZ / MONSOON TROUGH IS ABLE TO BRING SIGNIFICANT 
MOISTURE INTO BASIN.  CLOUDS REMAIN LOW LEVEL AND STRATIFIED 
WITH LITTLE OR NO CONVECTION NOTED ACROSS MOST OF BASIN.

HIGH PRES CENTER NW OF AREA AT 34N147W HAS ASSOCIATED RIDGE 
EXTEND SE TO 17N106W.  CURRENT PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS LATE FRI 
AS HIGH PRES DRIFTS E INCREASING NE TRADES TO A FRESH BREEZE AND 
BUILDING SEAS TO 10-12 FT ALONG COAST OF CALIFORNIA.  MODEL  
GUIDANCE INCREASES WINDS ABOVE THE FRESH BREEZE THRESHOLD SEAS 
BUILDING TO 14 FT IN NW SWELL N OF 29N E OF 125W LATE FRI AND 
FRI NIGHT. 

LOW PRES WELL N OF BASIN PROMPTS LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS 
WHICH APPROACH NW CORNER OF BASIN LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD 
AND BEYOND.

$$
WALLY BARNES