000
AXPZ20 KNHC 062156
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED FEB 06 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 05N77W TO 04N80W TO 08N85W TO 05N91W 
TO 06N97W THEN ITCZ AXIS TO 07N103W TO 04N120W TO BEYOND 
05N140W.  NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.


...DISCUSSION...
SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUN FROM 32N116W TO 10N120W TO 00N120W. 
DRY AIR MASS ALOFT BRINGS MINOR AMOUNTS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE 
INTO CENTRAL MEXICO RIDING ON WEAK 50 KT JET WITHIN 240 NM E OF 
TROUGH AXIS.  ELSEWHERE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY DRY AND STABLE.  
NOT EVEN THE ITCZ / MONSOON TROUGH IS ABLE TO BRING SIGNIFICANT 
MOISTURE INTO BASIN.  CLOUDS REMAIN LOW LEVEL AND STRATIFIED 
WITH LITTLE OR NO CONVECTION NOTED ACROSS MOST OF BASIN.

HIGH PRES CENTER NW OF AREA AT 33N149W HAS ASSOCIATED RIDGE 
EXTEND SE TO 20N112W.  CURRENT PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS LATE FRI 
AS HIGH PRES DRIFTS E INCREASING NE TRADES TO A FRESH BREEZE AND 
BUILDING SEAS TO 10-11 FT.  MODEL GUIDANCE INCREASES WINDS ABOVE 
THE FRESH BREEZE THRESHOLD SEAS BUILDING TO 14 FT IN NW SWELL N  
OF 29N E OF 125W LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT. 

LOW PRES WELL N OF BASIN PROMPTS LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS 
WHICH APPROACH NW CORNER OF BASIN LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD 
AND BEYOND.

$$
WALLY BARNES