000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050327
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                       
0405 UTC TUE FEB 05 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 05N77W TO 08N86W TO 04N96W. THE 
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N96W TO 
06N120W TO 06N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION 
WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ IS NOTED...HOWEVER SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 123W AND 128W. 
THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 17N132W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                

1023 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS NEAR 32N130W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING 
TO THE SE THROUGH 26N120W TO 14N103W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE 
FAR W CENTRAL WATERS EXTENDING FROM 23N139W TO 12N139W. A RECENT 
OSCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED MAINLY FRESH WINDS N OF THE 
TROUGH WITH REMNANT 8 TO 10 FT SWELL IN MIXED SHORTER NE AND 
LONG PERIOD NW SWELL N OF 26N W OF 130W. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE W 
OF 140W LATER TONIGHT...WHILE A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG 
WINDS SET UP IN ITS WAKE FROM 19N TO 25N W OF 136W BY TUE 
EVENING...THEN FROM 10N TO 18N W OF 134W BY WED EVENING...AS THE 
RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD WHILE STRENGTHENING.

A SURROUNDING AREA OF 8 TO 10 FT NW SWELL COVERS THE WATERS E OF 
130W TO A LINE FROM 26N113W TO 00N120W. THIS SWELL IS FORECAST 
TO DECAY TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY EARLY TUE.

A NEW SET OF NW SWELL WILL BREACH THE NW CORNER OF THE 
DISCUSSION WATERS TUE EVENING...WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 
8 TO 11 FT REACHING TO A LINE FROM 30N117W TO 18N134W BY WED 
EVENING. THIS SWELL WILL ARRIVE BEHIND A WEAKENING COLD FRONT 
WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN N OF 30N AS IT CONTINUES EASTWARD WITH 
LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACT S OF 30N...OTHER THAN THE 
BUILDING SEAS.

GAP WIND FLOW ACROSS THE GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC...PAPAGAYO...AND 
PANAMA HAS DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR LESS AS INDICATED BY RECENT 
OSCAT PASSES. LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE CONDITIONS IS FORECAST 
THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
LEWITSKY