000
AXPZ20 KNHC 042133
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                       
2205 UTC MON FEB 04 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 04N77W TO 02N82W TO 06N87W TO 
03N106W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
03N106W TO 09N130W TO 08N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IN 
DIRECT ASSOCIATION WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ IS NOTED... 
HOWEVER SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N TO 19N BETWEEN 
124W AND 129W RELATED TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW POSITIONED NEAR 
17N131W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                

1025 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS N OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS NEAR 
33N131W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING TO THE SE THROUGH 29N123W TO 
16N109W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE FAR W CENTRAL WATERS 
EXTENDING FROM 20N139W TO 13N140W. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE 
BOTH N OF THE TROUGH FROM 20N TO 25N W OF 136W...AND E OF THE 
TROUGH FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 128W AND 133W WHERE THE PRES 
GRADIENT IS TIGHT SW OF THE RIDGE AND NE OF THE TROUGH. THE 
TROUGH WILL MOVE W OF 140W TONIGHT...WITH AN AREA OF FRESH TO 
STRONG WINDS PERSISTING IN ITS WAKE THROUGH WED AFTERNOON AS IT 
STALLS OUT JUST W OF 140W THROUGH WED.

A SURROUNDING AREA OF 8 TO 10 FT NW SWELL COVERS THE WATERS W OF 
A LINE FROM 23N113W TO 10N120W TO 00N130W. THIS SWELL IS 
FORECAST TO DECAY TO LESS THAN 8 FT TONIGHT.

A NEW SET OF NW SWELL WILL BREACH THE NW CORNER OF THE 
DISCUSSION WATERS LATE TUE...WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 8 
TO 11 FT REACHING TO A LINE FROM 30N120W TO 20N140W BY WED 
AFTERNOON. THIS SWELL WILL ARRIVE BEHIND A WEAKENING COLD FRONT 
WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN N OF 30N WITH LITTLE SENSIBLE IMPACT 
OTHER THAN THE BUILDING SEAS.

GAP WIND FLOW ACROSS THE GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC...PAPAGAYO AND 
PANAMA HAS DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR LESS AND LITTLE CHANGE IN 
THESE CONDITIONS IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
LEWITSKY