000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040927
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON FEB 04 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH 9N83W TO 3N90W TO 3N95W. ITCZ FROM 3N95W TO 
8N120W TO 6N135W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA 
EXTENDS FROM 32N125W TO 28N129W TO CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED 
NEAR 18N134W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 13N-20N E OF THE 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO 128W. A 95-105 KT NLY JETSTREAM ON THE W 
SIDE OF THE TROUGH FROM 32N136W TO 15N137W. A SW 95 KT JET SE OF 
THE TROUGH FROM 12N130W TO 17N120W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS 
E OF THE TROUGH TO 105W. A TROUGH IN THE DEEP TROPICS WITH AXIS 
FROM 17N97W TO THE GALAPAGOS ISLAND. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY 
AND STABLE AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS ACROSS THE AREA IS 
S OF 15N E OF 120W. THE SUBSIDENCE HAS SUPPRESSED CONVECTION 
ALONG THE ITCZ AND MONSOON TROUGH.

WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO BLOW GALE FORCE IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC...HOWEVER STRONG NLY WINDS IN THE 20-30 KT. THE 
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE TO LESS THEN 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

A 1013 MB LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 17N139W...THIS COMBINED WITH 
HIGH PRES N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA PRODUCING A STRONG ENOUGH 
PRES GRADIENT FOR ELY WINDS 20-25 KT FROM 18N-23N W OF 131W.  
THE LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROUGH TONIGHT AND WINDS 
DECREASE TO LESS THAN 20 KT...HOWEVER NW SWELLS TO 10 FT WILL 
CONTINUE W OF 120W.

ELY WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE CONTINUE THROUGH THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO. THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO FINALLY DECREASE TO LESS 
THAN 20 KT TODAY.

$$
DGS