000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040330
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON FEB 04 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 06N77W TO 05N94W. THE INTERTROPICAL 
CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N94W TO 04N110W TO 09N125W. 
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

1027 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS NEAR 
38N132W EXTENDS A RIDGE INTO THE AREA THROUGH 32N127W TO 
13N104W. 1011 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS NEAR 18N140W WITH AN 
ARCING TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 20N137W TO 15N134W TO 09N140W. 
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE N OF THE LOW WHERE A TIGHT PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND RIDGE IS PRESENT...ALONG WITH 
ANOTHER AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WITHIN 240 NM E OF THE 
TROUGH. LARGE NW SWELL UP TO 16 FT IS IN THE AREA OF STRONGEST 
WINDS N OF THE LOW AS REPORTED EARLIER BY SHIP A8KC6 IN THE 
AREA...WITH A SURROUNDING AREA OF NW SWELL OF 8 FT OR GREATER 
EXTENDING TO A LINE FROM 30N117W TO 10N120W TO 00N140W. THE LOW 
IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE INTO A TROUGH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
...MOVING W OF THE AREA BY 48 HOURS. ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS 
WILL GREATLY DIMINISH AND SUBSIDE AS THE LOW DISSIPATES.

1021 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES OVER E CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 22N98W 
EXTENDS A RIDGE TO THE SE NEAR THE CHIVELA PASS. A TIGHT 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND LOWER PRES S OF THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH CONTINUES 
TO SUPPORT MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS IN TEHUANTEPEC. THIS HIGH 
AND RIDGE WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT 
ALLOWING FOR THE GALE FORCE WINDS TO DIMINISH BY MON MORNING... 
WITH CONDITIONS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS BY MON 
AFTERNOON.

FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE IN AND DOWNWIND OF 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH MON NIGHT...DIMINISHING BY TUE 
MORNING AS TRADES E OF CENTRAL AMERICA WEAKEN.

MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SEEP INTO THE GULF 
OF PANAMA FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA. WINDS MAY OCCASIONALLY BE 
LOCALLY STRONG DURING PEAK DRAINAGE FLOW.

$$
LEWITSKY