000 AXPZ20 KNHC 030328 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SUN FEB 03 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 08N78W TO 04N99W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N99W TO 09N118W THEN RESUMES FROM 09N125W TO 10N136W TO 08N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED. ...DISCUSSION... 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES N OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS NEAR 36N129W EXTENDS A BROAD RIDGE INTO THE AREA THROUGH 32N125W TO NEAR 15N106W. 1011 MB SURFACE LOW PRES IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ NEAR 08N121W WITH AN ATTENDANT TROUGH REACHING FROM 11N119W TO 06N122W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND LOW/TROUGH IS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO FRESH NE-E WINDS IN THE LOW VICINITY... ALONG WITH AN AREA OF 8-9 FT SEAS IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELL. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS OR SO WITH ANY REMAINING ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISHING AND SUBSIDING. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N140W TO 1012 MB LOW PRES NEAR 21N139W...WITH AN EARLIER MORE NORTHERN LOW ALONG THE FRONT HAVING DISSIPATED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ARE FROM 20N TO 27N W OF 128W. LARGE NW SWELLS UP TO 16 FT ARE IN THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA...WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF 8 FT OR GREATER NW SWELL REACHING ALL THE WAY TO THE SE TO A LINE FROM 30N123W TO 19N127W TO 03N140W. THE FRONT WILL LOOSE FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS BECOMING A TROUGH WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE THE LOW GRADUALLY MOVES TO NEAR 17N138W BY SUN EVENING...THEN TO NEAR 18N138W BY MON EVENING. ASSOCIATED FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL BECOME ORIENTED PRIMARILY AROUND THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW BY 48 HOURS...WHILE THE PEAK NW SWELL DECAYS TO 10 FT BY THEN. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE 8 FT OR GREATER SWELL WILL EXTEND TO A LINE FROM 23N110W TO 00N120W BY MON AFTERNOON. GAP WINDS... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH GALE FORCE WINDS OCCURRING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. A RECENT OSCAT PASS INDICATED 25-30 KT WINDS IN THE GULF DURING THE TYPICAL TIMING OF THE DAILY AFTERNOON LULL. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO PULSE BETWEEN MINIMAL GALE AND JUST SUB-GALE FORCE THROUGH MON MORNING...WITH CONDITIONS RAPIDLY WEAKENING BY MON AFTERNOON AS THE PRES GRADIENT SIGNIFICANTLY RELAXES. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS OF 20-30 KT ARE FUNNELING INTO AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...ALONG WITH 8-10 FT SEAS. THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO ONLY SLOWLY DIMINISH TO 20-25 KT THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL S-SW OF PANAMA FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE 48 HOURS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE LATE NIGHT /EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH A LULL OCCURRING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. $$ LEWITSKY