000 AXPZ20 KNHC 022154 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SAT FEB 02 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 09N84W TO 03N98W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N98W TO 06N117W THEN RESUMES FROM 08N123W TO 08N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED. ...DISCUSSION... 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES N OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS NEAR 36N129W EXTENDS A BROAD RIDGE INTO THE AREA THROUGH 32N124W TO NEAR 14N106W. 1012 MB SURFACE LOW PRES IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ NEAR 08N120W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND LOW IS RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS FROM 09N TO 17N BETWEEN 119W AND 126W AS SEEN BY A RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS. SEAS OF 8-10 FT ACCOMPANY THESE WINDS. THIS LOW WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO WITH ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISHING AND SUBSIDING. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N140W TO 1012 MB LOW PRES NEAR 26N139W TO 23N140W. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE W OF THE FRONT WHILE FRESH TO STRONG E-SE WINDS ARE N OF 25N E OF THE FRONT TO 136W. LARGE NW SWELLS UP TO 17 FT ARE W OF THE FRONT... WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF 8 FT OR GREATER NW SWELL REACHING A LINE FROM 30N126W TO 07N140W. THE FRONT WILL LOOSE FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS BECOMING A TROUGH WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE THE LOW GRADUALLY MOVES TO NEAR 19N137W BY SUN AFTERNOON...THEN TO NEAR 18N136W BY MON AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL BECOME ORIENTED PRIMARILY AROUND THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW BY 48 HOURS...WHILE THE PEAK NW SWELL DECAYS TO 12 FT BY THEN. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE 8 FT OR GREATER SWELL WILL EXTEND TO A LINE FROM 24N111W TO 00N125W BY MON AFTERNOON. GAP WINDS... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH GALE FORCE WINDS OCCURRING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. A RECENT ASCAT PASS INDICATED 25-30 KT WINDS IN THE GULF AND THIS INSTRUMENT HAS BEEN SHOWN TO HAVE A 5 KT OR SO LOW BIAS IN THIS RANGE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE BETWEEN MINIMAL GALE AND JUST SUB-GALE FORCE THROUGH MON MORNING...WITH CONDITIONS RAPIDLY WEAKENING BY MON AFTERNOON AS THE PRES GRADIENT SIGNIFICANTLY RELAXES. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS OF 20-30 KT ARE FUNNELING INTO AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...ALONG WITH 8-11 FT SEAS. THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO ONLY SLOWLY DIMINISH TO 20-25 KT THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL S-SW OF PANAMA FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE 48 HOURS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE LATE NIGHT /EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH A LULL OCCURRING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. $$ LEWITSKY