000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020319
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT FEB 02 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 00N80W TO 02N83W THEN RESUMES FROM 
10N84W TO 03N99W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS 
EXTENDS FROM 03N99W TO LOW PRES NEAR 09N120W 1009 MB TO 04N140W. 
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

WEAK 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 30N123W WITH 
A VERY BROAD RIDGE REACHING TO THE S-SW TO NEAR 18N128W. 
MEANWHILE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERN HALF 
OF THE ITCZ FROM 14N124W TO 10N124W TO 05N130W...AND 1009 MB LOW 
PRES IS ALSO WITHIN THE ITCZ NEAR 09N120W. THE PRES GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THE LOW/TROUGH AND RIDGING IS RESULTING IN FRESH TO 
STRONG NE WINDS S OF 14N W OF THE TROUGH TO 130W AS INDICATED 
BY EARLIER OCEANSAT SCATTEROMETER DATA. SEAS OF 8-10 FT ARE 
COINCIDENT WITH THESE WINDS. A DECAYING AREA OF SURROUNDING 8-10 
FT MIXED NE AND NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 
FT BY SAT. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY BECOME 
LESS DEFINED WITH ASSOCIATED WINDS DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS 
BY SUN MORNING.

A COLD FRONT IS JUST W OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS ALTHOUGH A 
PRECEDING SET OF NW SWELL IS OUTRUNNING THE FRONT AND HAS 
BREACHED 30N140W. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY ENTER THE NW CORNER 
OVERNIGHT...EXTENDING FROM 30N138W TO 23N140W BY EARLY SAT 
MORNING...THEN WILL DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH AS IT EXTENDS FROM 
28N128W TO DEVELOPING 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 20N134W TO 12N136W 
BY SAT EVENING. FRESH TO STRONG NW-N WINDS WILL BE BEHIND THE 
FRONT SAT MORNING...WITH 20-30 KT EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE 
ENTIRE AREA FROM 20N TO 29N W OF 128W BY SUN EVENING AS THE LOW 
BECOMES SLIGHTLY BETTER DEFINED. THE SET OF NW SWELL WILL HAVE 
PEAK SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF AROUND 15 FT OVER THE NW 
PORTION...WHILE SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER COVERS THE AREA W OF A 
LINE FROM 30N118W TO 10N123W TO 00N140W BY THE END OF THE 
WEEKEND.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A TIGHTLY PINCHED PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO AND LOW PRES S 
OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON 
TROUGH CONTINUES TO SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC AS SEEN BY AN EARLIER OCEANSAT PASS. LATE AFTERNOON 
LAND BASED OBSERVATIONS FROM IXTEPEC MEXICO WERE 25 KT GUSTS 35 
KT. SEAS OF 9-12 FT ARE COINCIDENT WITH THE GALE FORCE WINDS... 
WITH ADDITIONAL SEAS OF 8-11 FT CONTINUING TO SPREAD TO THE SW 
OF THE GULF TO 07N. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A BRIEF 
DIMINISHING OF THE WINDS BELOW GALE FORCE SAT AFTERNOON...WITH 
ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE FORCE WINDS OVERNIGHT SAT INTO SUN MORNING 
...AND AGAIN OVERNIGHT SUN INTO MON MORNING. THE GALE WARNING 
HAS NOW BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH THE ENTIRE 48 HOUR TIME PERIOD 
BASED ON THE CONTINUING TRENDS OF ADDITIONAL MINIMAL GALE 
CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS/MORNINGS...ALTHOUGH WINDS 
WILL LIKELY BE JUST BELOW GALE FORCE FOR A FEW HOURS EACH 
AFTERNOON.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND SEAS UP TO 
11 FT ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF TO 
AROUND 92W THROUGH LATE MON MORNING.

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE 
ISTHMUS OF PANAMA FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE GULF OF 
PANAMA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL NOW LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH SUN 
EVENING...OCCASIONALLY WEAKENING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS 
BEFORE RAMPING UP AGAIN EACH NIGHT/MORNING.

$$
LEWITSKY