000
AXPZ20 KNHC 012126
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI FEB 01 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 01N80W TO 05N88W TO 03N98W. THE 
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N98W TO 
07N118W THEN RESUMES FROM 08N121W TO 04N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION IS NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

WEAK 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 34N134W WITH 
A VERY BROAD RIDGE REACHING TO THE S-SW TO NEAR 20N130W. 
MEANWHILE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERN HALF 
OF THE ITCZ FROM 11N118W TO 07N118W. THE PRES GRADIENT IN THE 
VICINITY OF THIS TROUGH AND ALSO W OF THE TROUGH WHERE THE ITCZ 
HOOKS TO THE N A BIT IS RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS 
FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 115W AND 120W...AND ALSO WITHIN 240 NM N 
OF A LINE FROM 10N125W TO 03N133W AS INDICATED BY RECENT 
SCATTEROMETER PASSES. SEAS OF 9-11 FT ARE COINCIDENT WITH THESE 
WINDS. A DECAYING AREA OF SURROUNDING 8-9 FT SWELL WILL CONTINUE 
TO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY SAT. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE 
TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LESS DEFINED WITH ASSOCIATED WINDS 
DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS BY SUN MORNING.

A COLD FRONT IS JUST W OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS ALTHOUGH A 
PRECEDING SET OF NW SWELL IS OUTRUNNING THE FRONT AND HAS 
BREACHED 30N140W. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY ENTER THE NW CORNER 
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXTENDING FROM 30N137W TO 22N140W BY 
SAT AFTERNOON WHILE BEGINNING TO TRANSITION TO A REMNANT TROUGH 
...THEN WILL EXTEND FROM 30N136W TO 1012 MB LOW PRES NEAR 
20N136W TO 10N137W BY SUN AFTERNOON. FRESH TO STRONG NW-N WINDS 
WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT SAT...WITH 20-30 KT EASTERN WINDS 
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA N OF 20N W OF 127W BY SUN AFTERNOON AS 
THE LOW DEVELOPS. THE SET OF NW SWELL WILL PEAK AT ABOUT 14-15 
FT OVER THE NW PORTION.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A TIGHTLY PINCHED PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO AND LOW PRES S 
OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON 
TROUGH CONTINUES TO SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC AS SEEN BY EARLIER ASCAT AND OCEANSAT PASSES. SEAS 
OF 10-14 FT ARE COINCIDENT WITH THESE WINDS...WITH ADDITIONAL 
SEAS OF 8-12 FT CONTINUING TO SPREAD TO THE SW OF THE GULF TO 
07N. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO BELOW GALE FORCE BY 15 
UTC SAT...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE ANOTHER GALE SURGE LATE SAT 
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN. IF MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE 
THE POTENTIAL FOR SUCH THEN THE GALE WARNING MAY NEED TO BE 
EXTENDED TO CATCH THIS SECONDARY SURGE RATHER THAN DROPPING THE 
WARNING AND REINITIALIZING IT FOR THE NEXT BRIEF EVENT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND SEAS UP TO 
11 FT ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF TO 
AROUND 92W THROUGH LATE MON MORNING.

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE 
ISTHMUS OF PANAMA FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE GULF OF 
PANAMA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SAT MORNING... 
DIMINISHING BY SAT EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL RESULT IN BUILDING 
SEAS OF 8-9 FT DOWNWIND OF THE GULF.

$$
LEWITSKY