000
AXPZ20 KNHC 292159
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE JAN 29 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 02N79W TO 05N92W. THE INTERTROPICAL 
CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N92W TO 06N110W TO 06N125W 
TO 07N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS AN AXIS FROM S CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TO 
ACROSS NW MEXICO TO 27N128W TO 11N140W. MOISTURE IS BEING 
ADVECTED TO THE NE BY A 95-105 KT JET CORE JUST E OF THE SW HALF 
OF THE TROUGH...INCREASING TO 115-130 KT OVER THE NE HALF OF THE 
TROUGH...FROM THE DEEP TROPICS WITHIN 420-600 NM E OF THE UPPER 
TROUGH AXIS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS SE OF THE TROUGH EXTENDING 
FROM SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 16N98W TO THE SW NEAR 00N115W. AN 
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE DEEP TROPICS IS CENTERED 
NEAR 05N93W WITH AN ATTENDANT TROUGH REACHING FROM SOUTHERN 
GUATEMALA THROUGH THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO ACROSS THE GALAPAGOS 
ISLANDS WELL INTO THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE.

AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NEARLY STATIONARY 1039 MB 
HIGH PRES WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR 38N133W TO THE SE THROUGH 
30N130W WITH A TERMINUS NEAR 20N104W. THE PRES GRADIENT ON THE 
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG 
TRADES ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NW HALF OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS. SEAS 
OF 8-13 FT CURRENTLY ACCOMPANY THESE WINDS...ABOUT 1-2 FT HIGHER 
THAN THE WAVEWATCH MODEL GUIDANCE AS INDICATED BY EARLIER 
ALTIMETER PASSES AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN 
SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO 
DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY THU AFTERNOON WITH REMNANT SEAS UP 
TO 11 FT BY THEN.

BROAD TROUGHING WILL SET UP OVER FAR NW MEXICO AND THIS COMBINED 
WITH THE RIDGE TO THE SW-W WILL FEED NW-N FRESH TO STRONG WINDS 
FIRST IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA...EXPANDING TO 
ENCOMPASS ESSENTIALLY THE ENTIRE GULF BY LATE WED. THESE WINDS 
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO 20 KT OR LESS JUST BEYOND 48 HOURS AS 
THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS.

GAP WINDS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL RUSH THROUGH THE GULF OF 
MEXICO ON WED WITH A SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS FOLLOWING THE 
FRONT FUNNELING THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS TO THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC AREA. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO RAPIDLY REACH GALE 
FORCE BY WED NIGHT...UP TO 45 KT LATE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU 
MORNING...PERSISTING THROUGH THU AFTERNOON. STRONG HIGH PRES 
BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALSO HELP TO MAINTAIN THESE 
CONDITIONS. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE (10M WINDS) IS CAPPED AT 45 
KT ALTHOUGH THERE EXISTS A POSSIBILITY FOR MINIMAL STORM FORCE 
WINDS (30M GUIDANCE WINDS ARE UP TO 50-65 KT) WHICH WILL NEED TO 
BE MONITORED IN CASE THE WARNING NEEDS TO BE UPGRADED PRIOR TO 
THE EVENT.

NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE IN THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS 
OCCURRING DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH 
ENHANCED DRAINAGE FLOW...AND WEAKER WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOONS.

FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF PANAMA 
TO THE GULF OF PANAMA BY THU AFTERNOON FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN 
SEA...BUILDING SEAS TO UP TO 9 FT DOWNWIND OF THE GULF BY THE 
END OF THE WEEK.

$$
LEWITSKY