000
AXPZ20 KNHC 291519
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE JAN 29 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH 3N78W TO 5N92W. ITCZ 5N92W 6N120W TO 6N140W. 
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM NW MEXICO ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA 
CALIFORNIA TO 26N139W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING NW OF 
THE TROUGH. A 95-105 KT JETSTREAM IS SE OF THE TROUGH FROM 
12N137 TO SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA WHERE WINDS INCREASE TO 
115-130 KT THEN INTO NW MEXICO AND THE SW UNITED STATES. BROKEN 
TO OVERCAST MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 500 NM SE OF THE 
JET. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS SE OF THE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 
SOUTHERN MEXICO SW TO 3N109W. A UPPER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN 
THE DEEP TROPICS IS CENTERED NEAR 5N93W WITH TROUGH S INTO THE 
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR AT 
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION E OF 110W. 

SURFACE RIDGE IS N OF 15N W OF 110W. THE PRES GRADIENT ON THE 
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTING ELY WINDS IN THE 
20-25 KT RANGE FROM 10N-25N W OF 125W. OTHERWISE LARGE NW SWELL 
TO 11 FT ARE W OF 110W.

ELY 20-25 KT WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THU.

STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE 
GULF OF MEXICO TIGHTENING THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN 
MEXICO RESULTING IN GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC WED NIGHT.

$$
DGS