000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290911
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE JAN 29 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 06N90W WHERE LOW 
LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO ITCZ EXTENDING TO 09N132W TO 
BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 
90 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 122W AND 128W.

...DISCUSSION...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE...1038 MB...IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 
38N134W WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 19N110W. THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN 
THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF STRONG 
TRADEWINDS COVERING MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 10N AND W OF 115W. THE 
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE 
NEXT 24-48 HOURS WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING. THE WEAKENING AREA OF 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOOSEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND AS A 
RESULT...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF STRONG TRADEWINDS WILL DECREASE. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION 
TODAY. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH TROUGHING OVER MEXICO TO 
STRENGTHEN WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY THIS EVENING. 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL FURTHER BUILD ON WED...WITH WINDS OVER THE 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR GALE FORCE BY EARLY 
THU.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SW N 
ATLC WATERS IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS 
ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN. THESE WINDS AREA FUNNELING THROUGH THE 
GAP IN TOPOGRAPHY OF CENTRAL AMERICA PRODUCING STRONG NE TO E 
WINDS OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THESE STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED 
TO BRIEFLY DIMINISH ON WED AFTER THE EARLY MORNING PEAK DRAINAGE 
FLOW OFF THE LAND HAS ENDED...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN 
STRENGTHEN EARLY THU. 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST 
ON WED AND RAPIDLY SHIFT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...REACHING 
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY WED EVENING. A DENSE AIR MASS BEHIND THE 
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC...WITH WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE BY 
EARLY THU MORNING.  

$$
AL