000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280913
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON JAN 28 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N85W TO 05N91W WHERE LOW 
LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO ITCZ EXTENDING TO 09N126W TO 
BEYOND 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 
90 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 118W AND 122W.

...DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE 1035 MB IS CENTERED N 0F THE AREA NEAR 38N137W. 
THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER HAS SHIFTED CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA 
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. AS A RESULT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN IT AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ HAS 
TIGHTENED ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONG TRADEWINDS FROM 17N TO 27N W 
OF 132W. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE 
TO BUILD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL EXPAND THE COVERAGE 
OF THE STRONG TRADES. 

NW SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE 
FORECAST WATERS...WITH PERIODS AS LONG AS 18-20 SECONDS. THIS NW 
SWELL WILL MIX WITH NE WIND WAVES GENERATED BY THE STRONG TRADE 
WIND FLOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SEAS THAT ARE CURRENTLY 
AS HIGH AS 10 FT IN NW SWELL W OF 116W WILL REACH AS HIGH AS 12 
FT BY TUE UNDER THE STRONG TRADE REGIME. 

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE COAST 
OF THE MID ATLC UNITED STATES IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH 
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN. THESE WINDS ARE FUNNELING 
INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO PRODUCING A FRESH TO STRONG NE BREEZE 
DOWNWIND OF PAPAGAYO. THE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
DAYS...WITH WINDS PEAKING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WHEN 
DRAINAGE FLOW IS AT A MAXIMUM. 

LOOKING AHEAD...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST ON 
WEDNESDAY AND RAPIDLY SHIFT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS...REACHING 
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WED NIGHT. THE DENSER AIR MASS BEHIND THE 
FRONT WILL START FUNNELING THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATE WED NIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE 
POSSIBLE WITH THIS LATEST GAP WIND EVENT BY THU MORNING. 

$$
AL