000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270911
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN JAN 27 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N84W TO 05N93W WHERE LOW 
LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS TO 
09N124W TO BEYOND 03N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION WAS 
NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE 1034 MB IS CENTERED WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR 
41N143W. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTH 
WHERE THE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY 
OF THE ITCZ IS PRODUCING WINDS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE HIGH 
PRESSURE CENTER WILL STRENGTHEN WHILE SHIFTING CLOSER TO THE 
AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT ENOUGH TO BRING A RETURN OF STRONG TRADEWINDS FROM 10N 
TO 25N W OF 130W BY EARLY SUN. NW SWELLS COVERING THE NW PART OF 
THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD S AND E THROUGH THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS WITH SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER COVERING THE AREA N OF 
06N W OF 112W.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE 
ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS DEPICTED BY THE LATEST HIGH 
RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS. THE RIDGE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL 
WEAKEN TODAY WHICH WILL DIMINISH WINDS FUNNELING INTO THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC. AS A RESULT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 25 KT 
AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT THIS AFTERNOON.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...HIGH PRES OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO IS 
MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE SW 
CARIBBEAN THAT ARE FUNNELING INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. FRESH TO 
STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MON. WINDS WILL 
PEAK DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WHEN DRAINAGE FLOW IS AT A 
MAXIMUM. 

$$
AL