000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252131
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI JAN 25 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2030 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM 04N78W TO 09N85W TO 05N97W. 
THE ITCZ WAS ANALYZED FROM 05N97W TO 07N114W THEN CONTINUES FROM 
05N120W TO 03N130W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS 
FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 83W AND 87W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN IN PLACE 
YESTERDAY HAS BEGUN TO FLATTEN. THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 
122W N OF 10N TO A WEAKENING LOW NEAR 33N122W...BUT IT IS 
RAPIDLY LOSING ITS SURFACE REFLECTION. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED 
BELOW 25 KT OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS A RESULT. THE UPPER 
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF A DEEPENING 
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF 
THE FORECAST AREA BY SAT. THIS MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS ALREADY 
CARRYING A NEW TRAIN OF NW SWELL INTO NW WATERS...WITH PERIODS 
AS LONG AS 20 SECONDS. SEAS IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE ARE ALREADY IN 
PLACE AND EXPECTED THE REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 120W 
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOSITURE LIES E 
OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND IS DIRECTING LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS 
WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS...AS WELL AS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR 
THE LOW CENTER...INTO THE BAJA PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN 
CALIFORNIA. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 
SAT. 

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE 1546 UTC ASCAT PASS CONFIRMED WINDS 
HAVE DIPPED BELOW GALE FORCE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS THE 
DRIVING HIGH PRES IN THE NE GULF OF MEXICO HAS WEAKENED. ON 
SUN...THIS HIGH PRES SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ENGULFED IN 
STRONGER HIGH PRES TO ITS NE...CUTTING OFF THE STRONG NORTHERLY 
FLOW THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE 1226 UTC JASON1 
PASS SHOWED SEAS AS HIGH AS 13 FT IN THE GULF. SEAS IN THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT AND WINDS BELOW 25 KT 
BY SUN AFTERNOON...BUT NE SWELL DOWNSTREAM WILL SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY 
MORE GRADUALLY THROUGH SUN.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE HIGH PRES OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO IS 
ALSO MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE SW 
CARIBBEAN THAT ARE FUNNELING INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THE 1545 
UTC ASCAT PASS CONFIRMS WINDS TO 25 KT DOWNWIND OF PAPAGAYO TO 
90W. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE HERE THROUGH 
THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRES TO THE N CONTINUING TO SEND EASTERLY 
FLOW FROM THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA. A STRONG BREEZE 
WILL MOST LIKELY BE SEEN IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WHEN 
DRAINAGE FLOW IS AT A MAXIMUM. 

$$
SCHAUER