000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250910
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI JAN 25 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 05N93W WHERE LOW 
LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS TO 
08N117W TO BEYOND 03N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION WAS 
NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

DISSIPATING HIGH PRESSURE 1027 MB IS CENTERED JUST N OF THE AREA 
NEAR 32N140W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A DISSIPATING LOW 
PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 31N122W ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 30N121W 
EXTENDING TO 22N124W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE 
FEATURES HAS LOOSENED ENOUGH TO WHERE WINDS ARE NOW BELOW 
ADVISORY CRITERIA. NW SWELLS WITH COMBINED SEAS 8 TO 10 FT 
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA W OF 115W. 
THE SWELLS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH 
AREAL COVERAGE OF SEAS OF AT LEAST 8 FT DIMINISHING.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...1027 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR TUXPAN 
MEXICO CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN IT 
AND THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH TO THE S...SUPPORTING WINDS TO GALE 
FORCE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE LATEST ASCAT PASS DEPICTS 
WINDS OF 35 KT...BUT WITH THE 5 KT LOW BIAS AT THAT WIND 
SPEED...WINDS ARE LIKELY NEAR 40 KT. THE AREA OF HIGH PRES IS 
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TODAY WITH GALE FORCE WINDS FORECAST TO 
DIMINISH BY THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER THE GALE FORCE WINDS 
DIMINISH...FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE WILL CONTINUE IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC INTO THE WEEKEND. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS 
MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE SW 
CARIBBEAN THAT ARE FUNNELING INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. FRESH TO 
STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A STRONG BREEZE MOST LIKELY TO BE SEEN 
IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WHEN DRAINAGE FLOW IS AT A MAXIMUM. 

GULF OF PANAMA...THE LATEST ASCAT PASS DEPICTS A FRESH NORTHERLY 
BREEZE IN THE GULF OF PANAMA. FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED 
TO CONTINUE TO FUNNEL FROM THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN THROUGH 
PANAMA THIS WEEKEND...WITH OCCASIONAL STRONG BREEZE POSSIBLE. 

$$
AL