000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250330
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI JAN 25 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0130 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 02N79W TO 08N85W TO 
06N92W. THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 06N92W TO 06N106W TO 
07N117W TO 05N124W THEN CONTINUES FROM 06N135W TO 06N140W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN IS IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA 
FEATURING A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A LOW NEAR 32N124W 
THROUGH 20N126W TO NEAR 10N128W BOOKENDED BY UPPER RIDGES IN 
PLACE OVER FAR NW WATERS AND ALONG 101W N OF 10N. OVER THE NEXT 
FEW DAYS...THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ERODE WHILE THE 
PATTERN ONLY SLIGHTLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. A PLUME OF TROPICAL 
MOSITURE LIES E OF THE TROUGH AND IS DIRECTING LOW TO MID LEVEL 
CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS INTO NW MEXICO INCLUDING THE BAJA 
PENINSULA AS WELL AS INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THESE CONDITIONS 
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AT THE 
SURFACE...THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND 1026 MB HIGH 
PRES NEAR 31N143W IS SUPPORTING AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG N TO 
NE WINDS W OF THE TROUGH AS SEEN IN THE 1744 AND 1926 UTC ASCAT 
PASSES. AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH 
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 8-12 FT RANGE 
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION W OF 120W AS LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL 
CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. 

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...1026 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE NE 
GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT 
BETWEEN IT AND THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH TO THE S...SUPPORTING 
WINDS TO GALE FORCE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE 1854 UTC 
OSCAT PASS SHOWED WINDS AT OR NEAR GALE FORCE AS FAR AS 120 NM 
S-SW OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. GALE WINDS WILL EXPAND WITH THE 
DIURNAL MAXIMUM OF DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE LAND IN THE EARLY 
MORNING HOURS. HIGH PRES IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO 
WEAKEN ON FRIDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONSISTENTLY 
DIMINISH BY FRI AFTERNOON AS A RESULT...BUT A FRESH TO STRONG 
BREEZE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC INTO THE 
WEEKEND. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS ALSO 
MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE SW 
CARIBBEAN THAT ARE FUNNELING INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THE 1716 
UTC OSCAT PASS CONFIRMS WINDS TO 25 KT DOWNWIND OF PAPAGAYO 
WHILE THE 1606 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWS THE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS DO 
NOT EXTEND ANY FURTHER W THAN 90W. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN PAPAGAYO INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A 
STRONG BREEZE MOST LIKELY TO BE SEEN IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS 
WHEN DRAINAGE FLOW IS AT A MAXIMUM. 

GULF OF PANAMA...THE 1428 UTC ASCAT PASS AND THE 1716 UTC OSCAT 
PASS SHOW WINDS IN THE GULF OF PANAMA HAVE DIMINISHED TO A FRESH 
NORTHERLY BREEZE. WHILE THE NORTHERLY FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST 
CARIBBEAN THROUGH PANAMA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...WINDS ARE NOT 
EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONSISTENTLY AT OR ABOVE 25 KT OVER THE NEXT 
FEW DAYS. 

$$
SCHAUER