000
AXPZ20 KNHC 242158
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU JAN 24 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2045 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 03N78W TO 10N84W TO 
05N92W. ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 05N92W TO 07N110W TO 06N116W 
TO 07N123W...THEN CONTINUES FROM 07N133W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE 
AXIS BETWEEN 94W AND 98W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN IS IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA 
FEATURING A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A LOW NEAR 32N124W 
TO NEAR 10N130W BOOKENDED BY UPPER RIDGES FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER 
FAR NW WATERS AND ALONG 103W N OF 10N. OVER THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS...THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ERODE WHILE THE PATTERN 
ONLY SLIGHTLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOSITURE LIES 
E OF THE TROUGH AND IS DIRECTING SHOWERS INTO NW MEXICO 
INCLUDING THE BAJA PENINSULA AS WELL AS INTO SOUTHERN 
CALIFORNIA. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE 
NEXT FEW DAYS. AT THE SURFACE...THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE 
TROUGH AND 1027 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 30N141W IS SUPPORTING AN AREA 
OF FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS W OF THE TROUGH AS SEEN IN THE 
1744 AND 1926 UTC ASCAT PASSES. AS THE TROUGH GRADUALLY 
DISSIPATES...WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. SEAS 
WILL REMAIN IN THE 8-12 FT RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION W OF 
120W AS LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. 

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...1028 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE NORTH 
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRES 
GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH TO THE 
S...SUPPORTING WIND TO GALE FORCE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. 
THE OBSERVATION AT SALINA CRUZ REPORTED 30 KT N WIND AT 1800 
UTC...WITH WINDS OFFSHORE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER. GALE WINDS MAY 
BRIEFLY DIMINISH IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE 
RETURNING WITH THE DIURNAL MAXIMUM OF DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE LAND 
IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HIGH PRES IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS 
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ON FRIDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO 
CONSISTENTLY DIMINISH BY FRI AFTERNOON AS A RESULT...BUT A FRESH 
TO STRONG BREEZE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF 
TEHUANTEPEC INTO THE WEEKEND. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS ALSO 
MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE SW 
CARIBBEAN THAT ARE FUNNELING INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THE 1716 
UTC OSCAT PASS CONFIRMS WINDS TO 25 KT DOWNWIND OF PAPAGAYO 
WHILE THE 1606 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWS THE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS DO 
NOT EXTEND ANY FURTHER W THAN 90W. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN PAPAGAYO INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A 
STRONG BREEZE MOST LIKELY TO BE SEEN IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS 
WHEN DRAINAGE FLOW IS AT A MAXIMUM. 

GULF OF PANAMA...THE 1428 UTC ASCAT PASS AND THE 1716 UTC OSCAT 
PASS SHOW WINDS IN THE GULF OF PANAMA HAVE DIMINISHED TO A FRESH 
NORTHERLY BREEZE. WHILE THE NORTHERLY FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST 
CARIBBEAN THROUGH PANAMA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...WINDS ARE NOT 
EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONSISTENTLY AT OR ABOVE 25 KT OVER THE NEXT 
FEW DAYS. 

$$
SCHAUER