000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241509
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU JAN 24 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 02N79W TO 09N85W TO 05N95W. THE  
ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 05N95W TO TO 07N125W...THEN CONTINUING  
TO 07N135W TO 05N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

PULES OF STRONG GAP WIND FLOW CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN MARINE 
WEATHER IMPACT ALONG THE SHIPPING LANES FROM PANAMA TO SOUTHERN 
MEXICO.

A 1027 MB HIGH PRES AREA IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST 
OF MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO...MAINTAINING A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT 
ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND SUPPORTING PULSES OF WIND 
TO GALE FORCE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. SCATTEROMETER DATA 
FROM 0630 UTC VERIFIED THAT WINDS TO GALE FORCE WERE PRESENT 
AGAIN IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE GALES LIKELY PERSIST 
THROUGH THIS MORNING BUT WILL DIMINISH TO JUST BELOW GALE FORCE 
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE N OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO 
PERSIST ANOTHER 24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH WEAKENING. GAP WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN TO GALE FORCE OVERNIGHT DUE TO 
DRAINAGE EFFECTS AND PERSISTING THROUGH EARLY FRI...REACHING 30 
KT BY FRI NIGHT BUT OTHERWISE REMAINING AROUND 20 TO 25 KT. 

FARTHER SOUTH...THE HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS ALSO 
MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE SW 
CARIBBEAN...WHICH IN TURN ARE FUNNELING INTO THE GULFS OF 
PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA. SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA 
INDICATE 15 TO 20 KT N WINDS THROUGH PANAMA...BUT 20 TO 25 KT 
PERSISTING THROUGH PAPAGAYO. GFS AND UKMET OUTPUT HAVE BEEN 
HANDLING THE PAPAGAYO FLOW WELL...AND INDICATE 20 TO 25 KT 
PULSES PERSISTING DURING OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS 
THROUGH AT LEAST SUN.

ELSEWHERE E OF 110W...THE SUCCESSIVE STRONG GAP WIND PULSES ARE 
ALLOWING A PLUME OF NE TO E SWELL IN EXCESS OF 8 FT TO EMERGE 
OUTWARD FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND COVER THE WATERS FROM 
08N TO 14N E OF 110W BY LATE FRI.

W OF 110W...
A SHARP MID/UPPER TROUGH PERSISTS FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO 
20N128W...SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 30N123W TO 20N127W. 
ASCAT DATA FROM 05 UTC INDICATED 20 TO 25 KT NORTHERLY FLOW 
BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH AND A 1025 MB HIGH PRES AREA CENTERED 
NEAR 31N140W. A PAIR OF ALTIMETER PASSES AIDED THE SEA HEIGHT 
ANALYSIS INDICATING SEA IN EXCESS OF 8 FT COVERING MUCH OF THE 
AREA W OF 110W...WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 14 FT POSSIBLE N OF 25N W 
OF 125W. THE ELEVATED SEAS ARE ATTRIBUTABLE TO SUCCESSIVE WAVES 
OF NW SWELL. MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN LOW OVER MUCH OF THE AREA W 
OF 110W DUE TO AN INFLUX OF DRY MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW ON THE W 
SIDE OF THE MAIN TROUGH. THE EXCEPTION HAS BEEN THE AREA E OF 
THE TROUGH CLOSER TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BAJA...WHERE HIGHER 
MOISTURE AND OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS HAVE LIKELY BEEN SUPPORTING 
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS APPEARS 
TO BE DIMINISHING ON SATELLITE COMPARED TO EARLIER IMAGERY.

$$
CHRISTENSEN