000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240300
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU JAN 24 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N77W TO 08N84W TO 07N88W THE ITCZ 
AXIS CONTINUES FROM 07N88W TO 05N101W TO 09N120W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION IS NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...
GAP WINDS CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN ISSUE E OF 11OW. RECENT 
WINDSAT PASS INDICATED WINDS WERE REACHING MINIMAL GALE FORCE IN 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE IMPETUS FOR THE STRONG GAP WINDS IS 
HIGH PRES ANCHORED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE THROUGH SAT. GAP WINDS IN THE 
GULF OF PANAMA WILL REMAIN THROUGH EARLY FRI. THE GAP WINDS 
MAINTAIN A DEFINITE DIURNAL TREND...WITH THE STRONGER WINDS 
OCCURRING IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS IN THE TEHUANTEPEC 
AREA WILL DIMINISH TO JUST BELOW GALE FORCE DURING THE 
DAY...THEN SURGE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE LATE AT NIGHT INTO THE 
EARLY MORNING HOURS THU AND FRI THEN REMAIN BELOW GALE FORCE FRI 
EVENING AS THE HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WEAKENS.

W OF 110W...A SHARP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 42N126W 
TO A WEAKENING DEEP LAYER CYCLONE NEAR 27N128W. AT THE 
SURFACE...A OF LOW PRES 1010 MB IS NOTED NEAR 29N125W. A 
WEAKENING COLD FRONT TRAILS FROM THE LOW NEAR TO 15N125W THEN 
DISSIPATING TO 09N134W. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES 
GENERALLY 20 TO 25 KT N SURFACE FLOW WELL NW OF THE LOW 
COMPLEX...MAINLY N OF 18N W OF 129W...BETWEEN THE LOW PRES AND 
1024 MB HIGH PRES AREA CENTERED NEAR 31N142W. OVERRUNNING OF 
SOMEWHAT MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW PRES 
COMPLEX IS ALLOWING WHAT IS LIKELY AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WITHIN 
230 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 24N. 

THROUGH THU...THE UPPER PORTION OF THE TROUGH SHIFT E INTO THE 
PACIFIC NW PORTION OF THE UNITED STATES...CUTTING OFF AND 
WEAKENING THE DEEP LAYER CYCLONE FARTHER SOUTH NEAR 28N127W. 
MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE SURFACE LOW OPENING INTO A TROUGH 
ALONG 124W N OF 27N BY LATE THU. 

BY FRI...A SECOND MID/UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE NE 
PACIFIC OCEAN N OF 35N...ALLOWING THE CYCLONE NEAR 29N125W TO 
OPEN AND SHIFT NE THROUGH NORTHERN BAJA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. 
MEANWHILE THE SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 31N142W WILL DRIFT 
E...MAINTAINING THE FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS N OF 22N W OF 
127W THROUGH FRI EVEN AS THE LOW PRES WEAKENS. LOOKING AHEAD TO 
SAT...THE HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA...BUT TRADE WINDS WILL 
DIMINISH TO 15 TO 20 KT W OF 130W AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS NE OF THE 
AREA.

$$
PAW