000
AXPZ20 KNHC 232131
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED JAN 23 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2030 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 03N77W TO 06N85W TO 06N91W THE ITCZ 
AXIS CONTINUES FROM 06N91W TO 07N112W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION 
IS NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...
GAP WINDS CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN ISSUE E OF 11OW. SCATTEROMETER 
DATA FROM AROUND 16 UTC TODAY INDICATED WINDS WERE REACHING 
MINIMAL GALE FORCE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. SHIP REPORTS 
TODAY INDICATED SIMILAR GAP FLOW IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND 
THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA. THE IMPETUS FOR THE STRONG GAP WINDS 
IS HIGH PRES ANCHORED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. LITTLE CHANGE IS 
EXPECTED IN THE PATTERN FOR THE GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND 
PAPAGAYO. GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF PANAMA WILL REMAIN THROUGH 
EARLY FRI. THE GAP WINDS MAINTAIN A DEFINITE DIURNAL TREND... 
WITH THE STRONGER WINDS OCCURRING IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. 
WINDS IN THE TEHUANTEPEC AREA WILL DIMINISH TO JUST BELOW GALE 
FORCE DURING THE DAY...THEN SURGE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE LATE AT 
NIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THU AND POSSIBLY FRI. WINDS 
WILL DIMINISH FRI INTO SAT AS THE HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA 
WEAKENS.

W OF 110W...A SHARP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 45N127W 
TO A DEEP LAYER CYCLONE NEAR 26N130W. AT THE SURFACE...A OF LOW 
PRES 1008 MB IS NOTED NEAR 28N127W. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT 
TRAILS FROM THE LOW NEAR TO 11N126W THEN DISSIPATING TO 07N133W. 
RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES GENERALLY 20 TO 25 KT N 
SURFACE FLOW WELL NW OF THE LOW COMPLEX...MAINLY N OF 22N W OF 
130W...BETWEEN THE LOW PRES AND 1024 MB HIGH PRES AREA CENTERED 
NEAR 29N146W. OVERRUNNING OF SOMEWHAT MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ON 
THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW PRES COMPLEX IS ALLOWING WHAT IS LIKELY 
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WITHIN 230 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 20N. 

THROUGH THU...THE UPPER PORTION OF THE TROUGH SHIFT E INTO THE 
PACIFIC NW PORTION OF THE UNITED STATES...CUTTING OFF AND 
WEAKENING THE DEEP LAYER CYCLONE FARTHER SOUTH NEAR 28N127W. 
MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE SURFACE LOW MERGING NEAR 27N128W AND 
FILLING BEFORE OPENING INTO A TROUGH ALONG 125W N OF 27N BY LATE 
THU. 

BY FRI...A SECOND MID/UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE NE 
PACIFIC OCEAN N OF 35N...ALLOWING THE CYCLONE NEAR 28N127W TO 
OPEN AND SHIFT NE THROUGH NORTHERN BAJA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. 
MEANWHILE THE SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 29N146W WILL DRIFT 
NE...MAINTAINING THE FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS N OF 22N W OF 
127W THROUGH FRI EVEN AS THE LOW PRES WEAKENS. LOOKING AHEAD TO 
SAT...THE HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA...BUT TRADE WINDS WILL 
DIMINISH TO 15 TO 20 KT W OF 130W AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS NE OF THE 
AREA.

$$
PAW