000 AXPZ20 KNHC 221603 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC TUE JAN 22 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 01N80W TO 05N87W TO 06N96W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N96W TO 09N113W AND FROM 07N130W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 109W AND 119W. ...DISCUSSION... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 24N132W THAT SUPPORTS AN AREA OF COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ON A 1005 MB LOW NEAR 23N134W. AS THIS OCCLUDED LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS...A NEW LOW...INDICATED ON AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS AROUND 22/0558 UTC NEAR 18N125W HAS FORMED AND IS FORECAST TO ROTATE N-NW AROUND THE PARENT LOW AND DISSIPATE BY EARLY THURSDAY. THE ASCAT PASS FROM EARLIER INDICATES WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KT WITHIN 120 NM OF THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. TWO AREAS OF WIND IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 30 KT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PARENT LOW AND ARE LOCATED WITHIN THE NE QUADRANT...AND WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE BY 23/0000 UTC AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED BEYOND THE NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA INCREASES. VERY LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS ARE CURRENTLY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC BASIN IMPACTING COASTAL BAJA CALIFORNIA AND AREAS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE MAINTAINING SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS GENERALLY W OF 107W IN THE RANGE OF 8 TO 12 FT. GAP WINDS... N TO NE GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY AS RIDGE AXIS REMAINS STRONG ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. N TO NE WINDS CONTINUE TO FUNNEL THROUGH GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND GULF OF PANAMA WITH SEAS UP TO 9 FT IN GULF OF PAPAGAYO. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE FOR BOTH AREAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE WIND FIELD ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA REMAINS NEARLY UNIFORM. $$ HUFFMAN