000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220954
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE JAN 22 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0930 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 03N79W TO 07N88W THEN ITCZ TO 10N123W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM OF AXIS FROM 110W  
TO 123W.

...DISCUSSION...
SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM 32N137W TO VERY WELL-DEFINED 
STACKED CYCLONE AT 24N133W SUPPORTS VIGOROUS SURFACE LOW PRES 
1002 MB AT 24N135W.  DRY AIR MASS W OF LOW PRES BUT ABUNDANT 
TROPICAL MOISTURE IS ADVECTED N BY LOW LEVEL S-SE WINDS BETWEEN 
130W AND 118W AND LIFTED BY LARGE ELONGATED AREA OF DIVERGENT 
FLOW ALOFT CAUSED BY INTERACTION OF CYCLONE AND DOWNSTREAM RIDGE 
CREST ALONG 117W.  SECOND TROUGH DIGS S FROM S-CENTRAL MECXICO 
TO 10N103W TO GALAPAGOS ISLANDS WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS 
WITHIIN 5 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF AXIS.  FINALLY...MID TO UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ALONG 85W S OF NICARAGUA KEEPS SUBSIDING AIR 
MASS VERY DRY AND STABLE E OF 90W.  

OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS FROM SURFACE LOW PRES N TO 30N138W THEN 
COLD FRONT RUNS SE TO 20N128W TO 10N134W TO 07N140W.  TIGHTENING 
PRES GRADIENT W OF LOW PRES LIKELY TO PROMPT GALE FORCE N-NE 
WINDS TONIGHT W OF 135W BUT LASTING LESS THAN 24 HRS AS LOW 
WEAKENS QUICKLY AFTER TUE AFTER LOSING ITS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
STRONG S-SE WINDS ALONG AND WITHIN 300 NM E OF COLD FRONT 
THROUGH LATE WED. 

VERY LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS CURRENTLY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL 
SECTIONS OF BASIN IMPACT NRN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA.  SUBSIDING SWELL TRAIN...CURRENTLY AT 9 FEET... 
CROSS EQUATOR SOUTHEASTWARD W OF 105W.

GAP WINDS...
N TO NE GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EXPECTED TO 
LINGER THROUGH WED...HOWEVER THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AT TIMES 
TO JUST BELOW 35 KT THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

N TO NE WINDS CONTINUE TO FUNNEL THROUGH GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND 
PANAMA WITH SEAS UP TO 10 FT IN GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND 8 FT N OF 
05N BETWEEN 79W AND 81W...INCLUDING GULF OF PANAMA.  EXPECT SEAS 
TO SUBSIDE IN AND DOWNSTREAM GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH WED...AND 
CHANGE LITTLE IN AND NEAR GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH THU.

$$
WALLY BARNES