000 AXPZ20 KNHC 220343 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC TUE JAN 22 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0330 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 05N77W TO 07N87W THEN TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ TO 07N100W TO 08N111W TO 10N125W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 118W-123W. ...DISCUSSION... A LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM WELL NW OF THE AREA SE THROUGH 32N137W TO A VORTEX MOVING SLOWLY SE AT 24N135W...AND CONTINUES TO 16N133W TO NEAR 11N131W. AT THE SURFACE...THE ASSOCIATED LOW IS COLLOCATED WITH THE VORTEX AT THE SAME POSITION OF 24N135W WITH A PRES OF 1002 MB. AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 20N137W AND N TO 29N137W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A COLD FRONT TO 27N131W TO 19N130W TO 10N140W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ALONG 32N136W TO 25N128W TO 14N130W. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE E OF THE TROUGH SUPPORTS EXTENSIVE AREAS OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG AND WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE STATIONARY FRONT N OF 15N. SE TO S WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE N OF 19N BETWEEN THE FRONT AND 128W AS WAS SUGGESTED BY AN ASCAT AND OSCAT PASSES FROM MON AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE 10 TO 13 FT IN MAINLY NW SWELLS WITHIN THE AREA OF 20 TO 25 KT. THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EWD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS... WHILE THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES SE WHILE WEAKENING. AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL PERSIST BETWEEN THE COLD AND STATIONARY FRONTS AS WELL AS WITHIN 180 NM TO 240 NM E OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. A GALE WARNING IN THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR N TO NE WINDS OF 30 TO 24 KT TO BEGIN TUE EVENING BETWEEN 360 NM AND 480 NM IN THE NW QUADRANT OF THE LOW WITH SEAS OF 12 TO 17 FT DUE TO THE FORECAST TIGHT PRES GRADIENT EXPECTED NW OF THE LOW AS HIGH PRES TO ITS N BUILDS EASTWARD AND STRENGTHS THE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND THE LOW. HIGH SEA STATE IN THE RANGE OF 12-16 FT WILL BE EVIDENT IN THE FAR W AND IN THE NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH WED AS GENERATED BY THE AREA OF FORECAST GALE WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH LARGE NW SWELLS PROPAGATING INTO THE NW AND N SECTIONS. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS JUST E OF THE AREA FROM NW MEXICO TO 21N104W TO 15N107W TO 10N103W AND SE TO NEAR 05N96W. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND ABOUT 115W. W OF THE TROUGH OVER THE WRN PORTION OF THE AREA...SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN CONFLUENT FLOW INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING SE ARE NOTED TO THE NW OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. WITH THE COLD FRONT HAVING PUSHED SO FAR TO THE SE...THE ITCZ SEGMENT BETWEEN 120W AND 126W HAS RESPONDED BY LIFTING NWD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE NOTED FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 123W-129W. VERY LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THESE SWELLS ARE IMPACTING MOST OF THE NRN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. BUOY DATA NETWORK N OF THE AREA ARE REPORTING LARGE NW SWELLS GREATER THAN 9 FT W OF 120W WITH PERIODS IN EXCESS OF 18 SECONDS. EXPOSED COASTS WITH NW EXPOSURE ARE LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY STRONG AND POWERFUL SURF...AND POSSIBLE COASTAL EROSION DURING HIGH TIDES OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS. THE SUBSIDING SWELL TRAIN...THAT CURRENTLY IS NEAR 9 FEET...CROSSES THE EQUATOR AFFECTING THE SOUTH PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 105W. GAP WINDS... N TO NE GALE FORCE WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH WED...HOWEVER THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AT TIMES TO JUST BELOW 35 KT THROUGH THIS PERIOD. N TO NE WINDS CONTINUE TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT DOWNSTREAM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...AND SEAS TO 8 FT N OF 05N BETWEEN 79W AND 81W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF PANAMA. EXPECT SEAS TO LOWER SOME IN AND DOWNSTREAM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH WED...AND TO CHANGE LITTLE IN AND NEAR THE GULF OF PANAMA ALSO THROUGH THU. $$ AGUIRRE