000
AXPZ20 KNHC 212205
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON JAN 21 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2145 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM  FROM 06N77W TO 07N88W TO 06N93W 
THEN TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ TO 07N106W TO 08N115W TO 10N126W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 
121W-125W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N137W TO A RATHER
VIGOROUS NEARLY STATIONARY AT 26N136W TO 18N133W TO NEAR 11N129W.
AT THE SURFACE...A LOW PRES CENTER IS ANALYZED AT 27N137W 1006 MB
WITH A COLD FRONT TO 28N135W TO 24N134W TO 20N135W TO 16N140W. 
A STATIONARY FRONT IS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ALONG 30N138W TO
27N131W TO 24N127W TO 15N133W. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE E OF THE
MID/UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS EXTENSIVE AREAS OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG AND WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE 
STATIONARY FRONT N OF 15N.
 
A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS JUST E OF THE AREA FROM NW MEXICO
TO 21N104W TO 15N107W TO 10N103W AND SE TO NEAR 05N96W. SATELLITE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED
DRY AIR BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND ABOUT 115W.

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY AND SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE 
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 08N BETWEEN
92W AND 109W. THE WIND FLOW IS PUSHING MULTILAYERED MOISTURE
ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.  

VERY LONG PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY SWELL CURRENTLY IS MOVING THROUGH 
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. IT IS IMPACTING THE WEST
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH 10 FOOT BREAKERS. THE SUBSIDING 
SWELL TRAIN...THAT CURRENTLY IS NEAR 9 FEET...CROSSES THE 
EQUATOR AFFECTING THE SOUTH PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 105W.

GAP WINDS...
CONTINUED NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
CROSS THE CHIVELA PASS AND BRING GALE FORCE NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST
WINDS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH IN ORDER TO BE BARELY 35 KNOTS. THE WIND SPEEDS ARE 
FORECAST TO INCREASE AGAIN TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE LATE MONDAY.

A CURRENT STRONG NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN 
CARIBBEAN SEA IS SEEPING THROUGH THE GAPS...INTO THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO...AND THE GULF OF PANAMA. THE SEAS ARE
BUILDING 9 TO 11 FEET.

$$
MT/AGUIRRE