000
AXPZ20 KNHC 211559
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON JAN 21 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH PANAMA NEAR 09N78W THROUGH 
9N84W IN SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL COSTA RICA...TO 07N87W AND 06N92W.
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 08N102W 3N100W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
FROM 06N TO 07N BETWEEN 96W AND 97W. WEAKENING AND DISSIPATING
PRECIPITATION FROM 09N TO 10N BETWEEN 98W AND 100W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 31N139W TO
A 26N138W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 20N135W AND 12N133W. 
THE TROUGH AND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER SUPPORT TWO FRONTAL 
BOUNDARIES AND 1004 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER. A STATIONARY FRONT 
PASSES THROUGH 32N134W TO 26N130W TO 20N129W 17N130W AND 
14N133W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE 1004 MB LOW PRESSURE 
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N138W...CURVING TO 29N136W 24N134W AND 
16N140W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 16N
TO 20N BETWEEN 127W AND 130W...FROM 23N TO 25N BETWEEN 128W AND 
130W...AND FROM 28N TO 30N BETWEEN 131W AND 134W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 126W AND 127W... 
SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 126W
AND 134W.
 
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N117W IN 
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...TO A 30N112W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER 
THAT IS IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...TO 21N111W AND 10N110W. 
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...
IS WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 33N117W 26N113W 20N110W 
10N110W. 

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY AND SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE 
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 08N BETWEEN
92W AND 109W. THE WIND FLOW IS PUSHING MULTILAYERED MOISTURE
ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.  

VERY LONG PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY SWELL CURRENTLY IS MOVING THROUGH 
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. IT IS IMPACTING THE WEST
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH 10 FOOT BREAKERS. THE SUBSIDING 
SWELL TRAIN...THAT CURRENTLY IS NEAR 9 FEET...CROSSES THE 
EQUATOR AFFECTING THE SOUTH PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 105W.

GAP WINDS...
CONTINUED NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
CROSS THE CHIVELA PASS AND BRING GALE FORCE NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST
WINDS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH IN ORDER TO BE BARELY 35 KNOTS. THE WIND SPEEDS ARE 
FORECAST TO INCREASE AGAIN TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE LATE MONDAY.

A CURRENT STRONG NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN 
CARIBBEAN SEA IS SEEPING THROUGH THE GAPS...INTO THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO...AND THE GULF OF PANAMA. THE SEAS ARE
BUILDING 9 TO 11 FEET.

$$
MT