000
AXPZ20 KNHC 211014
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON JAN 21 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0930 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 02N79W TO 01N81W TO 08N86W TO 07N92W 
THEN ITCZ TO 08N104W TO 07N112W TO 12N131W.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM N OF AXIS FROM 98W TO 
100W.

...DISCUSSION...
SHARP NEGATIVELY TILTED MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SE FROM 
32N139W TO DEEP LAYER CYCLONE AT 26N137W.  CYCLONE SUPPORTS WELL 
STACKED AND VIGOROUS SURFACE LOW PRES 1004 MB DRIFTING SE WITH 
OCCLUDED FRONT TO ITS N EXTENDING INTO COLD FRONT ON EASTERN 
SEMICIRCLE OF LOW PRES.  STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE SE TO S WINDS 
WITHIN 300 NM E OF COLD FRONT AND GALE FORCE WINDS ON ITS 
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT.  RIDGE CREST ALONG 123W DOWNSTREAM FROM 
CYCLONE PROMPTS LARGE REGION OF DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT 
INTENSIFYING CONVECTION ALONG COLD FRONT.  

WEAKENED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 110W BRINGS SWATH OF DRY 
STABLE AIR MASS FROM 110W TO 120W.  LARGE AMOUNT OF TROPICAL 
MOISTURE ADVECTS NE ON E SIDE OF TROUGH INTO CENTRAL AND 
SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.    

ELSEWHERE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...

VERY LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH W HALF OF 
DISCUSSION AREA IMPACTING W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH 10 FT 
BREAKERS.  SUBSIDING SWELL TRAIN...CURRENTLY NEAR 9 FT...CROSS 
EQUATOR AFFECTING S PAC W OF 105W.   

GAP WINDS...
CONTINUED NE WINDS IN SW GULF OF MEXICO CROSS CHIVELA PASS AND 
BRING GALE FORCE N-NE WINDS INTO GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.  WINDS  
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO BARELY 35 KT BUT EXPECTED TO PICK UP 
AGAIN TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE LATE MON.

CURRENT STRONG NE BREEZE OVER SW CARIBBEAN SEEP THROUGH GAPS 
INTO GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND FONSECA AS WELL AS INTO GULF OF 
PANAMA BUILDING SEAS NEAR 9-11 FT.

$$
WALLY BARNES