000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170924
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU JAN 17 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 9N84W TO 6N94W. ITCZ FROM 6N94W TO 
8N125W TO 7N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA IS N OF 20N W OF 135W. DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
EXTENDS FROM 32N131W TO 21N125W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE E OF THE 
TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO THE BAJA PENINSULA. 
A 70-95 KT JETSTREAM S OF THE TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM 11N140W TO 
15N125W THEN SE TO 13N117W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH 
DRY STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS S OF 15N W OF 
110W. THE SUBSIDENCE HAS SUPPRESSED CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ.

STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS TIGHTENS 
THE PRES GRADIENT OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO RESULTING IN STORM FORCE 
WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH WINDS UP TO 50 KT. 
WINDS FORECAST TO DECREASE BACK TO GALE FORCE BY THU NIGHT.

ELY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE 20-30 KT LATE FRI.

$$
DGS