000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161517
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED JAN 16 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 05N77W TO 07N86W TO 06N100W THEN
CONTINUES AS THE ITCZ TO 07N123W TO 05N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION ALONG THE CONVERGENCE ZONE.

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRES EXTENDS ACROSS MOST OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA N OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE. STRONG 1034 MB HIGH PRES OVER 
NORTHERN MEXICO IS PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AMERICA...AND 
INCREASING THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. 
SHARP LOW PRES TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO ENHANCING 
NW WINDS IN GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WITH WINDS TO 30 KT BUILDING 
SEAS TO 9-10 FT NEAR 26N110W. ASCAT SCATTEROMETER SHOWS LARGE 
AREA OF 20 KT E-NE TRADE WINDS FROM 09N TO 24N W OF 120W.

EXPECT TIGHT PRES GRADIENT TO PRODUCE STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 KT THIS 
EVENING AS COLD FRONT IN WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO PUSHES INTO THE 
BAY OF CAMPECHE THEN CONTINUE TO BUILD TO 45-50 KT BY EARLY THU 
MORNING. GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS 45-50 KT WINDS CONTINUING FOR 
ANOTHER 36 HOURS OR SO UNTIL FRI MORNING...BUT GALE CONDITIONS 
ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD UNTIL MON MORNING 
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN A SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH NORTHERLY 
WINDS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND PERSISTENT STRONG PRES GRADIENT 
IN CENTRAL AMERICA. GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE STRONG 
PERSISTENT NE WINDS FRI THROUGH MON IN THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN. 
FRESH TO STRONG E-NE WINDS WILL EXTEND FAR DOWNWIND FROM SOURCE 
REGIONS NEAR TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO...RESULTING IN VERY LARGE 
AREA OF ELEVATED SEA HEIGHTS IN NE SWELL THU THROUGH SAT NIGHT 
EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM 05N TO 14N E OF 115W.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH THU NIGHT 
BUT FRESH NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE SEVERAL MORE DAYS THROUGH THE 
WEEKEND. MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER 
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH SUN. WW3 MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS 21 
SEC LONG PERIOD NW SWELL REACHING NW PORTION EARLY SAT MORNING 
THEN SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN WATERS THROUGH TUE WITH LITTLE 
CHANGE IN WAVE PERIOD ALONG LEADING EDGE OF THE SWELL. COASTAL 
AREAS IN MEXICO WITH NW EXPOSURE COULD SEE UNUSUALLY LARGE WAVE 
HEIGHTS AND BEACH EROSION FROM THIS LONG PERIOD SWELL EVENT.

$$
MUNDELL