000
AXPZ20 KNHC 142138
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON JAN 14 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 05N77W TO 06N95W TO 06N107W. THE 
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N107W TO 
09N120W TO 08N125W THEN RESUMES FROM 07N128W TO 05N140W. 

A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ FROM 11N125W TO 
05N127W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY 05N132W TO 07N120W TO 13N120W TO 
11N133W TO 05N132W.

...DISCUSSION...

STRONG 1044 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION 
WATERS NEAR 44N137W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE THROUGH 32N129W
TO NEAR 17N107W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND LOWER 
PRES IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ...INCLUDING THE TROUGH 
MENTIONED IN THE CONVECTION SECTION...IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO 
STRONG TRADES GENERALLY FROM 08 TO 27N W OF 120W-125W AS 
DEPICTED BY THE LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA. THE AREA OF HIGH PRES 
WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BECOME ILL-DEFINED 
AS WELL AS IT CONTINUES ON A WESTWARD MOTION. THIS WILL SLACKEN 
THE PRES GRADIENT AND DECREASE THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE STRONG 
TRADEWIND FLOW OVER THE W CENTRAL WATERS SIGNIFICANTLY BY 
MIDWEEK.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...VERY STRONG HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO 
BUILD ACROSS THE U.S. GREAT BASIN REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH 
WELL DEFINED SURFACE TROUGHING OVER WESTERN MEXICO WILL RESULT 
IN STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NW WINDS DOWN THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF 
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY THIS EVENING WITH SEAS UP TO 11 FT 
SPILLING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN GULF BY TUE AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE 
DEVELOPED AROUND A LOCAL RESEARCH STUDY CONTINUES TO INDICATE 
AROUND A 25 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF GALE CONDITIONS IN THE GULF 
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES DURING TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. WINDS 
IN THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN CAPPED AT 30 KT UNLESS PROBABILITIES 
FOR 35 KT WINDS INCREASE A BIT HIGHER.

GAP WINDS...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE ACROSS THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WINDS WILL PEAK DURING THE LATE 
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...FRESH TO STRONG...WITH THE ADDED 
COMPONENT OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. WINDS WILL REACH THE 
MINIMUM DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...WITH 
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAILING. 

MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SEEP INTO THE GULF OF 
PANAMA FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE NEXT 18 HOURS OR SO. 
THE WINDS MAY BRIEFLY AND LOCALLY INCREASE TO STRONG LEVELS 
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUE AFTERNOON 
THROUGH WED AS THE TRADEWINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN DECREASE WITH THE 
FUNNELING WINDS FROM THERE INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA DECREASING.

A SURGE OF COLD AIR IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE BEHIND A COLD FRONT IN 
THE GULF OF MEXICO WED INTO THU. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN 
WED AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR NORTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE TO FRESH 
TO STRONG AHEAD OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT. ONCE THE FRONT 
CLEARS THE SW GULF OF MEXICO NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RAPIDLY BE 
FUNNELED THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
AREA...WITH GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE BY AS EARLY AS WED 
EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE EVEN HINTS AT THE POTENTIAL FOR MINIMAL 
STORM FORCE WINDS BY LATE THU NIGHT WITH THE WW3 BUILDING 
RESULTANT SEAS NEAR 20 FT.

$$
LEWITSKY