000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140919
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON JAN 14 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH ALONG 7N78W TO 7N95W. THE INTERTROPICAL 
CONVERGENCE ZONE 7N95W 09N120W 7N125W TO 7N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM N AND 30 NM S OF AXIS 
FROM 124W-128W.

...DISCUSSION...
FLATTENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF 
THE AREA WITH AXIS FROM 29138W TO 17N130W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH IS E OF THE RIDGE N OF 25N E OF 130W. A 90-115 KT 
JETSTREAM SE OF THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N127W TO 27N127W WHERE 
WINDS INCREASE TO 125-150 KT THEN ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA 
CALIFORNIA INTO MEXICO WHERE WINDS FURTHER INCREASE TO 175 KT. 
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 660 NM S 
OF THE JET. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR AT 
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS WITHIN 500 NM N OF THE JETSTREAM. 
A NE-SW ORIENTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF 
MEXICO ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO TO 5N102W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS SE 
OF THE RIDGE.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRES NW OF THE AREA WITH TIGHT PRES 
GRADIENT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH 20-25 KT ELY WINDS FROM 
7N-25N W OF 130W AND FROM 8N-20N BETWEEN 115W-130W...WITH SEAS 
AS HIGH AS 14 FT IN NLY SWELL.

THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE WESTERN 
U.S. AND LOW PRE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO MON NIGHT RESULTING NLY 
WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.

$$
DGS