000
AXPZ20 KNHC 131508
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN JAN 13 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 08N86W TO 06N105W 
WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO ITCZ EXTENDING TO 
08N117W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS 
NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N AND 60 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 115W 
AND 120W.

...DISCUSSION...

STRONG 1040 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 42N141W WITH A RIDGE 
EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 20N111W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS 
FEATURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ ACROSS 
THE W CENTRAL WATERS IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES 
GENERALLY FROM 10N TO 20N AND W OF 120W AS DEPICTED BY THE 
LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT 
NORTHWARD AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 
THIS WILL LOOSEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DECREASE THE AREAL 
COVERAGE OF THE STRONG TRADEWIND FLOW OVER THE W CENTRAL WATERS. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...VERY STRONG HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO 
BUILD ACROSS THE U.S. GREAT BASIN REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN 
STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NW WINDS DOWN THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY MON EVENING.

GAP WINDS...THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE WITH 
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND FRESH TO 
OCCASIONALLY STRONG WINDS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY 
MORNING HOURS. 

MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SEEP INTO THE GULF OF 
PANAMA FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE WINDS 
MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE TO STRONG LEVELS.

LOOKING AHEAD FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A SURGE OF COLD AIR 
IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE BEHIND A COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO 
LATE TUE INTO WED. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE FUNNELED THROUGH THE 
CHIVELA PASS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AREA...WITH GALE 
FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE BY MIDWEEK.

$$
AL