000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130331
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN JAN 13 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 05N77W TO 09N84W TO 05N103W. THE 
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N103W TO 
07N114W THEN RESUMES FROM 07N117W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 126W AND 134W.

...DISCUSSION...

SURFACE TROUGHING ALONG THE COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA HAS WEAKENED AND WINDS IMMEDIATELY W OF THE COAST HAVE 
DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR LESS. A SET OF NW SWELL WITH SIGNIFICANT 
WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 12 FT AND PEAK WAVE PERIODS OF 14 SECONDS 
ACROSS THE SAME AREA WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY 
SUN MORNING.

STRONG STATIONARY 1040 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 39N141W 
WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE ALL THE WAY TO NEAR 16N104W. THE 
STRENGTH OF THIS HIGH PRES CENTER COMBINED WITH LOWER PRESSURE 
IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT 
ACROSS THE W CENTRAL WATERS. THIS PATTERN IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO 
STRONG TRADES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA N OF THE ITCZ AND W OF 
110W...AS CONFIRMED BY RECENT OCEANSAT SCATTEROMETER DATA.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...1002 MB LOW PRES IS POSITIONED OVER 
INTERIOR NORTHERN MEXICO NEAR 27N102W WITH INVERTED TROUGHING 
EXTENDING TO THE NW TO NEAR 30N112W. THIS TROUGHING COMBINED 
WITH THE RIDGE TO THE SW-W IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG 
NORTHERLY WINDS SPILLING OUT FROM THE FAR SOUTHERN GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA. VERY STRONG HIGH PRES WILL SET UP ACROSS THE U.S. 
GREAT BASIN REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS RESULTING IN STRONG 
TO NEAR GALE FORCE NW WINDS DOWN THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE GULF 
OF CALIFORNIA BEGINNING MON AFTERNOON.

GAP WINDS...THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO CONTINUES TO PULSE WITH FRESH 
TO STRONG WINDS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS 
DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT 
THE WINDS TO STRENGTHEN ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN BEFORE 
DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS BY SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH MON 
AFTERNOON.

MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SEEP INTO THE GULF OF 
PANAMA FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE WINDS 
MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE TO STRONG LEVELS.

LOOKING AHEAD FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A SURGE OF COLD AIR 
IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE BEHIND A COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO 
LATE TUE INTO WED. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE FUNNELED THROUGH THE 
CHIVELA PASS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AREA...WITH GALE 
FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE BY MIDWEEK.

$$
LEWITSKY