000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120935
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT JAN 12 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 05N77W TO 08N85W TO 05N95W. THE 
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE CONTINUES FROM 05N95W TO 07N110W 
TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 08N TO 
11N W OF 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS ROUNDING THE BASE OF A MID TO UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH SOUTHERN 
ARIZONA. ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGHING WILL MAINTAIN FRESH NW TO 
N FLOW ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHERN BAJA THROUGH 
TODAY...DIMINISHING TONIGHT. THE SURGE IN NW WINDS WILL BE 
ACCOMPANIED BY A PUSH OF NW SWELL UP TO 13 FT N OF 25N E OF 
120W. 

STRONG 1041 MB HIGH PRES REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY AT 39N141W 
ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP LAYER RIDGING ALONG 140W. THE STRENGTH OF 
THIS HIGH PRES IS KEEPING THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHT...AND IS 
MAINTAINING FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE TRADES OVER MUCH OF THE 
AREA N OF THE ITCZ AND W OF 110W...AS CONFIRMED BY SCATTEROMETER 
DATA DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD 
THROUGH SOUTHERN BAJA SAT NIGHT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE MID 
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH...ALLOWING NORTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE 
TO 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA SUN...BEFORE 
DIMINISHING SUN MORNING. LOOKING AHEAD...STRONG HIGH PRES WILL 
BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN LATE SUN INTO MON...ALLOWING NW WINDS 
OF 25 TO 30 KT DOWN THE LENGTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY LATE 
MON.

GAP WINDS...THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE ON A 
DIURNAL CYCLE THIS MORNING...THEN WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS 
BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE GAP FLOW WILL REGENERATE TONIGHT INTO 
EARLY SUN...BEFORE DIMINISHING AGAIN BY MIDDAY SUN.

LOOKING AHEAD FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A SURGE OF COLD AIR 
IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE BEHIND A COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO 
LATE TUE INTO WED. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE FUNNELED THROUGH THE 
CHIVELA PASS TO ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AREA BY MID 
WEEK...POSSIBLY UP TO GALE FORCE.

$$
CHRISTENSEN