000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120308
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT JAN 12 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 04N77W TO 08N85W TO 04N95W. THE 
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N95W TO 
06N120W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 
NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 132W TO 139W.

...DISCUSSION...

SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS ROUNDING THE BASE OF A MID TO UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH SOUTHERN 
ARIZONA. AN ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS DISSIPATED OVER THE 
DISCUSSION WATERS NEAR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DURING THE 
PAST FEW HOURS AS ITS UPPER SUPPORT HAS SINCE LIFTED OFF TO THE 
NE. 

STRONG 1041 MB HIGH PRES REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY AT 39N141W 
ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP LAYER RIDGING ALONG 138W-140W. THIS FEATURE 
DOMINATES THE DISCUSSION WATERS W OF 100W. THE STRENGTH OF THIS 
HIGH PRES IS KEEPING THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHT...AND IS 
MAINTAINING FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE TRADES OVER MUCH OF THE 
AREA N OF THE ITCZ AND W OF 110W...AS CONFIRMED BY ASCAT AND 
WINDSAT SCATTEROMETER DATA DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS.

BUOY OBSERVATIONS W OF THE AREA AND NE OF THE BIG ISLAND OF 
HAWAII CONTINUE TO REPORT SEAS UP TO 16-17 FT...AND A GALE 
WARNING IS IN PLACE N OF 19N BETWEEN 140W AND 152W JUST W OF THE 
DISCUSSION WATERS. THE LATEST WW3 AND ECWAVE MODEL RUNS REMAIN 
SLIGHTLY TOO LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS WITH A SHIP NEAR 
27N125W REPORTING 13 FT SEAS AT 21 UTC COMPARED TO MODEL 
GUIDANCE OF ONLY 11-12 FT AT THE SAME LOCATION. THE FORECAST 
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED UP BY 1-2 FT OR SO 
ACROSS THAT REGION BASED ON OBS.

GLOBAL MODELS HINT OF A SECOND PULSE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY 
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE MAIN TROUGH THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST U.S. 
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGHING WILL 
MAINTAIN FRESH NW TO N FLOW ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHERN BAJA 
THROUGH SAT...DIMINISHING SAT NIGHT. THE SURGE IN NW WINDS WILL 
BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PUSH OF NW SWELL UP TO 13 FT N OF 25N E OF 
120W FRI INTO SAT.

GAP WINDS...THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE ON A 
DIURNAL CYCLE TONIGHT...THEN WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY 
SAT NIGHT. EXPECT NE-E WINDS AT 20-25 KT AND SEAS TO 9 FT ACROSS 
THE WATERS E OF 91W...PRIMARILY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY 
MORNING HOURS TONIGHT/TOMORROW.

LOOKING AHEAD...A SURGE OF COLD AIR IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE BEHIND 
A COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE TUE INTO WED. NORTHERLY 
WINDS WILL BE FUNNELED THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS TO ACROSS THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AREA BY MID WEEK...POSSIBLY UP TO GALE FORCE.

$$
LEWITSKY